The best sign of spring

No, not the cardinal I saw this morning high in the tree in the front yard.
Not the tufts of grass sprouting up from dormant law.

Not the little buds on the rose bush on the flower bed.

All of these are good signs, no doubt.

No, the best sign of spring is the news that Johan Santana (AP picture from NY Mets Web site) will be taking the mound this afternoon against the Florida Marlins to kick off the Mets’ 2008 season.

Spring, in baseball, is about hope — even for teams like the Marlins, the Washington Nationals and the Kansas City Royals. For the Mets, opening day hopefully will be the beginning of a season-long cleansing of the soul, a 162-day erasure of last season’s ugly and painful collapse.

This team continues to have significant questions:

  • Age and health — Carlos Delgado, Moises Alou, Pedro Martinez, Duaner Sanchez, Carols Beltran, Orlando Hernandez and Luis Castillo are either coming off injuries or bad years or are injured. Each of them is imporant for the season.
  • New faces — Santana, Ryan Church and Brian Schneider need to provide what is expected. Santana, of course, is the big one, but Church needs to hit and field well enough to make Met fans forget the promise that Lastings Milledge had. And Brian Schneider needs to show what a strong defensive catcher can mean for the pitching, especially the bullpen.
  • Maine and Perez — if these guys repeat their 2007 performances, albeit with a bit more consistency, the Mets will be tough to beat.
  • Jose Reyes — he came up small during the second half and even smaller during the collapse. No surprise, of course; as Reyes goes, so go the Mets.
  • Bullpen — if the starters can consistently get into the seventh, this may not be as much of an issue, but the relievers have to do better than they did a year ago. In particular, Aaron Heilmann has to come up big as the eighth-inning guy, Billy Wagner has to remain healthy and get some rest and the other guys have to do their jobs. If Sanchez is healthy and can regain some of his 2006 form, the team can turn what is a question mark into a plus sign.

The rest of the division is interesting, but just as flawed. The Braves have a solid lineup, but a weak outfield and an aging starting rotation that features two guys in their 40s and another who is coming off several seasons of injuries. The Phillies’ pitching is a mess after Cole Hamels (can Brett Myers return to the starting rotation and who pitches after him? Is Brad Lidge healthy and what of his mental make-up?). The Marlins and Nationals are, to put it mildly, just plain awful.

My predictions, for what it’s worth: Mets in a close race over the Phillies, with the Braves in third followed by the Nationals and Marlins. The Cubs will win the Central in a tight race over the Brewers and the Diamondbacks should repeat in another jumbled race, followed by the Padres as the NL Wild Card, the Rockies and Dodgers.

The top nine teams will be separated in the standings by only a handful of games.

In the AL, look for the Red Sox, Tigers and Angels to win their divisions in close races, with the Mariners edging out the Yankees and Indians for the Wild Card. For the Yankees, this would mean a disappointing final season for the ballpark in the Bronx. But then, I’ve been wrong about this in the past — a fact I’m sure that Yankee fans will be all too willing to remind me of.

South Brunswick Post, The Cranbury Press
The Blog of South Brunswick

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The Bush extension

Glenn Greenwald offers a spot-on take on John McCain’s foreign policy thinking — a dangerous extension of the Bush doctrine that supports the cliches used (“a third Bush term,” etc.). A McCain presidency will mean an extension of the imperial project, the notion that the United States has both the right and obligation to run the world’s affairs.

It is, as I’ve been writing, the height of hubris and connected to the argument that Chris Hedges has been making, that the belief that history moves in a progressive direction (by progressive, I don’t mean liberal, but in a single direction) brings with it a rationalization of violence, a sense that the ends (a better world, the eradication of evil, etc.) justify the means.

South Brunswick Post, The Cranbury Press
The Blog of South Brunswick

E-mail me by clicking here.

Email me at grassroots at comcast dot net.

Polling Obama

Matt Yglesias reports on a poll — via Andrew Sullivan and Jon Chait — that offers some interesting insight into where Barack Obama’s support comes from or doesn’t, as the case may be. The poll shows, or purports to show, that race and ethnicity play into the decision voters will make about Obama — and possibly about Clinton down the road.

The numbers:

The focus has been on race, but as Yglesias says, the poll can be read differently:

conservative views about race don’t seem to be nearly as big an influence on anti-Obama sentiments as are conservative views about national security — it’s the “fight for U.S. right or wrong” crowd that’s really heavily represented in the anti-Obama coalition. It’s also fascinating to see that Democrats who agree that “men make better leaders” have a net negative view of Obama; apparently that kind of retrograde cultural conservatism sufficiently correlates with anti-Obama sentiments that even running against a woman doesn’t turn those people into Obama fans.

This could be viewed as being bad news for the Democrats, regardless of who gets the nomination, because the chief alternative to Obama is a woman. But, I want to point out that these are probably the kind of voters who self-identify as Democrats but who were not likely to vote Democrat in November.

South Brunswick Post, The Cranbury Press
The Blog of South Brunswick

E-mail me by clicking here.

Email me at grassroots at comcast dot net.