Results are in our hands, apparently

Patrick Murray of the Monmouth University Polling Institute offers an interesting overview, county by county, of how today’s results may play out — and it appears that Central Jersey is in the driver’s seat.

Another area worth watching is the Route 1 corridor counties (Mercer, Middlesex, Union), especially Middlesex. Corzine won Middlesex by 32,000 votes in 2005. Florio only won it by 1,300 votes in 1993. Voters in this region tend to be independent minded but vote Democratic in most elections. Polling indicates that Corzine is performing nowhere near as well in this region as he did four years ago. [In the past month, both Joe Biden and Bill Clinton have held rallies in Middlesex County.] While all regions of the state have their part to play in this race, this is the one I’m keeping my eye on to tell which way the wind is blowing.

These are Democratic Counties. But, as Murray points out, the gubernatorial race has a different dynamic, due I think to the more diverse mix here — racially, to be sure, but it also is a hodge-podge of rural, urban and suburban towns and poor, working class and rich communities.

If the turnout is large and the Democrats can convince the people not to jump ship as they move up the ballot, Chris Christie may have problems closing the deal.

On a side note, the national coverage of this race seems to have forgotten that it was just a few months ago that Christie was up by more than 20 in some polls and that Corzine was dead in the water. Shouldn’t that factor into the national media’s reading of the results?

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Runner’s diary, Monday

I made it back to the gym after what seems like months — I guess it’s literally been months. I taught this morning, then hit the office, managed to get quite a lot done and split early to get in a work out. I’ve been in excuse mode for too long and could see the results around my waist and in the quantity of clothing that no longer fits. I needed to just suck it up and hit the gym.

So I did today, running a mile on the treadmill and then hitting the weights and the elliptical machine. It was a good hour-plus and I feel good. I’ve got the bag packed for the morning already.

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Is the hope running out?

A story in today’s issue of The New York Times offers a glimpse into the dangers the Obama administration faces as he attempts to move forward, as many in the nation begin to lose faith in the promise he offered.

While I believe he remains popular, his standing with the public has been in flux, dependent not only on what has been awful coverage of the political moment and the bad faith of the opposition party, but also some of his own flaws — his cautiousness, his commitment to bipartisanship at the expense of action.

His willingness to leave the healthcare debate in the hands of Congress — more specifically, in the hands of so-called Blue Dog Democrats and conservative Democrats like Max Baucus — left liberals negotiating from a position of weakness, with the more progressive reforms being taken off the table before negotiations started.

We are still at war and it appears that we may soon see an escalation in Afghanistan, a move that would shatter his connection to the progressive wing of his party and those elements of the left that had signed on. Escalation also would drive away many independents, leaving his coalition in tatters and his presidency looking far too much like the last months of the Johnson administration.

There is time to turn this around, to act boldly and move the nation in a more humane direction, but he’s got to act quickly. There already is a palpable sense out there that the promises he made cannot be kept.

The

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Eric Idle for governor?

I love this story, especially because it’s not clear if it is anything more than a prank.

Chris Christie, the Republican candidate for Governor of New Jersey in Tuesday’s knife-edge gubernatorial election, has been called out as a copyright thief. The 47-year-old lawyer, who was controversially appointed by George W. Bush as a U.S. Attorney in 2001 on Karl Rove’s recommendation after being a top Bush fund-raiser in the 2000 election, has created an election commercial that steals copyright-protected material from British comedy troupe Monty Python — without permission or credit.

The official campaign advert — titled “Deja Vu” — attacks incumbent New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine by using scenes from a famous skit on the “Monty Python’s Flying Circus” TV show that features Michael Palin. The ad is on Christie’s official YouTube campaign site, and has already aired on national TV.

But neither Christie — a lawyer for 22 years — nor anyone in his campaign bothered to seek any permission for using the copyrighted material in his election spot.

Alerted to the theft of their copyright, members of Monty Python are most unhappy. Michael Palin, who appears in the clip pirated for the advert, is especially displeased that his likeness is being used by the Republican candidate without permission.

“I’m surprised that a former U.S. Attorney isn’t aware of his copyright infringement when he uses our material without permission. He’s clearly made a terrible mistake. It was the endorsement of Sarah Palin he was after — not that of Michael Palin.”

Monty Python’s Terry Jones says that the troupe is strongly considering suing the Republican for his copyright infringement:

“It is totally outrageous that a former US Attorney knows so little about the law that he thinks he can rip off people. On the other hand — another of Bush’s legal appointees was Alberto Gonzales and he didn’t seem to know much about the law either…,” Jones said.

The New Jersey race already was surreal, but introducing Monty Python takes it to a whole new level.

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