New Jersey, thanks to the shifting national population, has lost a congressional seat — a reduction that will take place with the 2012 election. That means someone is going to lose his job.
Mark Magyar, in NJ Spotlight today, outlines some of the possibilities — all of which start with the four most southern districts (three Republicans and a Democrat) staying somewhat in tact. The remaining nine will need to be squeezed, though two — Donald Payne’s and Albio Sires — are likely to expand a hair and not change their political composition.
That leaves seven Congressmen in the redistricting crosshairs. The four Democrats — Rush Holt, Frank Pallone, Bill Pascrell and Steve Rothman — have held their seats for some time and are highly popular in their districts. Two of the Republicans — Scott Garret and Rodney Frelinghysen are longtime veterans, while Leonard Lance is completing his second two-year term and would seem to be the man most likely to lose out.
New Jersey has been a relatively reliable blue state since 1992, when it tipped to Bill Clinton in the presidential race. Democrats have won every senate race in the state since 1978 and Democrats have held a majority of the state’s congressional seats for better than a decade.
Republicans, however, have been making gains in the state again, though not by much. Chris Christie won the governor’s race with less than 50 percent of the vote and the Democrats managed to lose just one legislative seat (though Republicans captured a majority of votes cast for legislative candidates statewide).
The final shape of the map will, in all likelihood, not shift power much in the state. Holt and Pallone, unless the new districts gut their basic core of support, seem unlikely to lose to Lance.
In the end, the current 7-6 split is likely to move to 7-5 — which will do little to alter the larger Congressional makeup or change the impact that New Jersey has in national politics.
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