Kucinich or Edwards? Ask Obama

Neither the South Brunswick Post nor The Cranbury Press will be making endorsements in the New Jersey presidential primary that is now just 33 days away. That said, I am a voter and I think it useful to share my thinking on what I might do come Feb. 5.

In general, I like Dennis Kucinich. The Ohio congressman is one of the only candidates to oppose the war in Iraq from the beginning, opposes war generally, is pushing for impeachment of President Bush and Vice President Cheney and supports a single-payer, national healthcare program.

But Kucinich is not the only interesting candidate out there — and something he did the other day has given me pause. Kucinich has asked his supporters to toss their caucus votes to Barack Obama if Kucinich does not crack the 15 percent threshold needed to stay on the ballot.

I hope Iowans will caucus for me as their first choice this Thursday, because of my singular positions on the war, on health care, and trade. This is an opportunity for people to stand up for themselves. But in those caucus locations where my support doesn’t reach the necessary threshold, I strongly encourage all of my supporters to make Barack Obama their second choice. Sen. Obama and I have one thing in common: Change.

But change to what? I was intrigued by Obama in the beginning, after his rousing speech four years ago. His freshness was very Kennedy-esque. But attempting to read his vapid book — “The Audacity of Hope” — disabused me of the notion that there was anything to the Illinois senator. The book is a vacant tract that is critical of both sides for being too partisan and ideological and essentially tries to paint the senator as being above all that. The problem, at least in the couple of chapters I managed to slog through (I gave up because I found the book to be nonsense), is that he posits a lack of ideology as a solution.

What’s wrong with that, you may ask? Well, ideology is just another word — a political perjorative, admittedly — for political philosophy. What Obama is offering, basically, is a candidacy long on hope (i.e., feel-good buzz words that make him a natural for the Oprah/Dr. Phil set) and short on substance. His actual candidacy has tacked to the right as Obama has sought to prove how different and new he is — a Clintonian approach that has out-Clintoned Hillary Clinton. On nearly every issue, he has positioned himself not only to the right of Kucinich, Mike Gravel and John Edwards, but also the former first lady.

And yet, it is to Obama that Kucinich wants his supporters to turn.

As late as this morning, I was still pretty committed to Kucinich, but then I read this piece by Norman Solomon on Tom Tommorrow‘s blog. He says

Reasons for a Kucinich vote remain. The caucuses and primaries are a time to make a clear statement about what we believe in — and to signal a choice for the best available candidate. Ironically, history may show that the person who did the most to undermine such reasoning for a Dennis Kucinich vote at the start of 2008 was… Dennis Kucinich.

Solomon was offended by Kucinich’s Obama statement, which he says “doesn’t seem to respect the intelligence of those of us who have planned to vote for Dennis Kucinich.”

It’s hard to think of a single major issue — including “the war,” “health care” and “trade” — for which Obama has a more progressive position than Edwards. But there are many issues, including those three, for which Edwards has a decidedly more progressive position than Obama. But the most disturbing part of Dennis’ statement was this: “Sen. Obama and I have one thing in common: Change.” This doesn’t seem
like a reasoned argument for Obama. It seems like an exercise in smoke-blowing.

He continues:

The best argument for voting for Dennis Kucinich in caucuses and primaries has been what he aptly describes as his “singular positions on the war, on health care, and trade.” But his support for Obama over Edwards indicates that he’s willing to allow some opaque and illogical priorities to trump maximizing the momentum of our common progressive agendas.

Presidential candidates have to be considered in the context of the current historical crossroads. No matter how much we admire or revere an individual, there’s too much at stake to pursue faith-based politics at the expense of reality-based politics. There’s no reason to support Obama over Edwards on Kucinich’s say-so. And now, I can’t think of reasons good enough to support Kucinich rather than Edwards in the weeks ahead.

It’s a tough argument to dismiss — and one that leaves me wondering what the Kucinich campaign is really about.

So, for whom will I vote? I don’t know. Give me a month to mull this over and I’ll get back to you.

South Brunswick Post, The Cranbury Press
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Marginalizing the debate

In an otherwise interesting piece on the economic approaches being taken by Democratic candidates, David Leonhardt in The New York Times offers this example of how the national press acts as a limiting force in national politics:

Given the odds that the next five weeks will turn one of the two candidates into a presumptive presidential nominee, it’s worth thinking about these ideas while there is still a campaign going on.

He’s talking about Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, of course, ignoring that John Edwards has been running neck and neck in Iowa. True, Clinton and Obama have the money and the national support, but the votes have yet to be cast and Edwards has run a spirited campaign.

This reminds me of something Glenn Greenwald wrote a few weeks back, which I blogged on at the time. He was writing about the war, but his analysis could easily apply to the economy or to the mainstream wisdom on the primaries:

Anyone who disrupts Beltway harmony in order to hold the Bush administration accountable — anyone who seems actually bothered by the rampant lawbreaking — is thus easily dismissed as an annoying radical or a self-promoting fraud.

Basically, Beltway coverage is a self-fulfilling prophesy. If you marginalize Edwards — or Dodd or Richardson or Kucinich (who was missing from the Times’ chart on the candidates’ positions over the weekend — the full chart is available online) — you limit their ability to get their messages out, pushing them to the margins, which then justifies the press’ marginalization of them in the first place.

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Deconstructing the fair tax

Jay Bookman of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution offers a pretty succinct dissection of Mike Huckabee’s fair-tax plan, showing how it is really nothing more than conservative fool’s gold and bad news for working people.

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The Blog of South Brunswick

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Bad electoral math

The Electoral College has outlived what little usefulness it has had.

Included in the U.S. Constitution as a way to ameliorate concerns from small states like Delaware that the presidency would be dominated by the larger states — and as a way to dilute the votes of actual citizens — the Electoral College offers little to American democracy.

The 2000 election, of course, proves the point, with a candidate taking the popular vote losing the election because he couldn’t cobble together the correct menu of states.

The 2004 vote, as well, plays into this. President George Bush won the popular and electoral votes, but the results in Ohio were close enough that there remains some doubt as to who won the state. Had John Kerry eeked out a win in Ohio, he would have bested President Bush and repeated the 2000 results — election of a president who lost the popular vote because he managed to win the right states.

So doing away with the Electoral College would seem a useful democratic reform. The trouble is that the changes on the table right now are flawed in various ways. In California, as John Dean points out, a politically motivated plan is being pushed by left-coast Republicans via the referendum process hoping to offset the incredible impact on the electoral vote that California’s backing of Democrats have.

In New Jersey, a plan to grant all of the state’s electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote was tabled, while another plan — sponsored by state Sen. Joseph Kyrillos (R-Monmouth) — would be similar to the California proposal and has the backing of The Asbury Park Press.

The California plan would apportion electoral votes based on Congressional districts — an absurd approach that would be no more representative than the current winner-take-all setup now in place. The winner in each Congressional district would get that electoral vote.

There are two basic flaws in this approach. First, Congressional districts are, after all, gerrymandered to create safe seats and have little to do at this point with representative government. States controlled by Democrats, for instance, can gerrymander districts to enhance their numbers — witness the Texas debacle a few years ago when the GOP attempted a mid-cycle redistricting.

Just as importantly, state-by-state reform that is not tied to national reform will do little more than dilute the importance of individual states. So long as Texas maintains a winner-take-all approach, California’s reforms will backfire. Texas will still give its large number of electoral votes to the GOP while California under the proposed reform would split its votes, in this case weakening the chances of the Democratic candidate. Flip the circumstances and the GOP would suffer.

As I said, none of the plans on the tables in the various states are perfect. The right way to do this would be to amend the U.S. Constitution and eliminate the Electoral College — not an easy task.

So something short of that should be done. The New Jersey plan tabled Monday appears to be the best of a bad lot — but only when enough states sign on to guarantee at least half of the nation’s electoral votes would be decided in this manner.

Otherwise, there is too great a chance that reforms will backfire.

South Brunswick Post, The Cranbury Press
The Blog of South Brunswick

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