The imploding candidate

I want to draw attention to a New Jersey blogger who has, I think, summed up the failures of the Clinton campaign and the apparent narcissism that fuels what is looking more and more like a lost cause.

Clinton, as Jill at Brilliant at Breakfast writes, has attempted to paint herself as something that she isn’t — a progressive — while at the same time being weighed down by her husband.

I don’t know about anyone else, but when I see her talk about creating good jobs at good wages, I want to shout at the TV, “Then why do you cozy up to the very companies that want to send those very jobs overseas?” She gives lip service to “retraining”, but says nothing about the nature of the jobs for which already highly skilled IT workers should “retrain.” Granted, she’s in a difficult position, because she either has to run on her words or run on her (and let’s face it, Bill’s) record. And for someone who refuses to ever admit that she was wrong, she has a long track record of supporting policies that she now repudiates on the stump without ever using the words “wrong” or “mistake.”

She adds this:

Clinton’s biggest problem is that the transformational nature of her candidacy is by definition muted by the inescapable fact that a Hillary Clinton presidency is not something entirely new, and it’s not uncharted territory. We’ve been here before. Assuming that the Obama Train continues its relentless roll into Denver and wraps things up by then, the irony of the Clinton candidacy will be that the first viable woman candidates’s aspirations were largely thwarted by the very husband whose own departing popularity ratings in 2000, after surviving eight years of Republican witch hunts, was still higher than George W. Bush’s have been for most of his presidency. Bill Clinton was supposed to be her biggest asset, and it seems he’s been her biggest liability, for all that people DO remember his presidency fondly. He’s become a liability because without the presidency and the ability to formulate policy as a backdrop, and when the campaign’s back is against the wall, all of Bill Clinton’s flaws have come to the fore — the “It’s all about me” narcissism. The need for attention and adulation. The relentlessness that’s no longer cloaked in a smile and a lower lip curled so fetchingly under his teeth.

Essentially, Clinton became the frontrunner early when she was the only one with serious name recognition and the party was still lost in a romantic lust for a successful past. Not that the past was all that great or that the party was all that healthy during the Clinton years, but Bill and Hillary were living in the White House and George W. Bush was not.

Once the campaign began and Barack Obama presented himself as an alternative that was looking ahead, her campaign started to crumble.

While there remains a possibility that she can rebound and win the nomination, the window is closing. And the smaller the opening becomes, the more of the old Clinton streetfighter attitude becomes apparent — as well as the sense of entitlement. Remember, the Clinton presidency was won built on the demise of the old Democratic coalition, one that made welfare reform a cause celebre and triangulation its chief philosophical attitude, making elements of the GOP Contract With America its own to maintain its grip on the White House.

I have no illusions about an Obama presidency. He’s already shown a willingness to tack right when he thinks it will be beneficial (his healthcare plan, for instance), but I like his energy and I think he probably has better progressive instincts than Hillary Clinton, more genuine progressive sensibilities, and is more likely to craft a larger coalition to get the right kinds of things done.

South Brunswick Post, The Cranbury Press
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McCain’s supposed advantage

John McCain, as Eugene Robinson says today, has “a big head start in the Fiesta of Forced Smiles — the post-primary, pre-convention phase of the presidential campaign in which former opponents and party elders pledge their support for the presumptive nominee in a photogenic show of unity.”

But that does not mean that McCain has a huge advantage over his as-yet-unnamed opponent.

That’s because, as Robinson says, he “intends to run on positions that most voters reject,” while tying himself to an increasingly irrelevent incumbent. McCain remains very much in favor of the Iraq War, a supporter of the long-war theory that could have us stuck in the desert sands indefinitely with little to gain.

E.J. Dionne Jr. points out how McCain’s thinking could have delitirious effects beyond Iraq and the Muslim world.

(O)ne of John McCain‘s favorite lines — his declaration that “the transcendent challenge of the 21st century is radical Islamic extremists,” or, as he sometimes says, “extremism” — could define the 2008 election.

Whether McCain is right or wrong matters to everything the United States will do in the coming years. It is incumbent upon McCain to explain what he really means by “transcendent challenge.”

Presumably, he’s saying that Islamic extremism is more important than everything else — the rise of China and India as global powers, growing resistance to American influence in Europe, the weakening of America’s global economic position, the disorder and poverty in large parts of Africa, the alienation of significant parts of Latin America from the United States. Is it in our national interest for all these issues to take a back seat to terrorism?

McCain makes his claim even stronger when he uses the phrase “21st century.” Does he mean that in the year 2100, Americans will look back and say that everything else that happened in the century paled in comparison with the war against terrorism?

I know people who answer yes, but the fact remains that terrorism is not an ideology and our battle with it has to be part of a larger, more comprehensive approach to the world. While Osama bin Laden makes for a nice poster boy for extremism, the inferno that has been blazing in Iraq — and in Lebanon, Gaza, the West Bank, etc. — is a result of the power imbalance. Equalize the power — more democracy, of course (though, not by the barrel of a gun), but also more sharing of resources and a greater willingness on the part of the remaining great power to listen and cooperate — and you have a chance to neutralize the disaffection that results in car bombings.

Given this, one has to wonder whether McCain’s vaunted foreign policy credentials will offer a boost to his candidacy in November, or end up an albatross.

If he can’t make the foreign policy argument, his candidacy is dead. As Robinson points out, his thinking on our increasingly dour economic climate is …. well, let’s just say that his admission a while back that he knows little about economics sums things up.

Both candidates will enter the general election cycle with some baggage, and perhaps some bloody wounds, but they still have to be considered the favorites to win a four-year lease to the White House.

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No easy choices

The Democratic Party is now in a no-win situation. Unless it can find a way to decide its nominating contest before the convention or to get both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to agree on how to handle Michigan, Florida and the superdelegates, the eventual Democratic nominee could be facing accusation that he or she has disenfranchised voters.

A sense of what is about to come can best be understood by considering Michael Medved’s questioning of Michael Eric Dyson on Thursday’s Larry King Show (I just caught the show):

MEDVED: My quick question for Professor Dyson would be, will they allow the 336 delegates from Florida and Michigan to get a chance to vote at the Democratic convention? Or is Obama, of all people, going to disfranchise 1.6 million Democrats who actually went out and voted and voted for Hillary Clinton in a Florida primary?

DYSON: First of all, it’s not up to Senator Obama. He certainly wouldn’t Disenfranchise anybody. He doesn’t want to see a repeat of Florida. Number two, from the very beginning the Democratic Committee said to those states that if you go ahead of Super Tuesday, you will not be seated. That is not up to Senator Obama. Please don’t rest that on him.Senator Obama wants everybody to be counted and counted fairly. If you are not part of the political stakes out there, and you didn’t know that Michigan and Florida are going to be counted and therefore, you didn’t show up, that’s unfair to count them. I think Senator Obama understand that, and the American people get that very well, as well.

While Medved is a supporter of John McCain, his question more than echoes the argument being made by the Clinton camp. And it demonstrates that the Republicans already understand that a fight over Michigan and Florida would be a disaster for Obama. They will use the Democratic Party’s decision to stand by its earlier penalty against Florida and Michigan as part of an attack on Obama’s professed inclusiveness — how, after all, can he be the standard-bearer for enfranchisement, how can he claim to be above politics, how can he claim to want to bring everyone in when thousands of votes won’t count. That’s not my argument — the issue is far more complicated than that — it’s the one being laid out there by the Clintons and Medved, though not in so many words.

Both states pose significant problems. In Michigan, all of the candidates except for Clinton stayed off the ballot and avoided campaigning there, leaving Clinton to garner 60-plus percent of the vote (about a third of the electorate did not vote for her, despite her being the only name on the ballot). The Michigan voters who did vote have every right to want their votes to count toward selecting the candidate, but the large number of potential voters who stayed home also should have some say here — something that is impossible. A revote would be unfair to Clinton — the circumstances of the race have changed drastically since the Michigan primary. Holding a convention poses similar problems.

Florida is more complicated. The candidates were on the ballot and there was nominal campaigning, but to say that it was just like all of the rest of the primaries ignores reality. As in Michigan, there are significant numbers of voters who likely stayed home because they did not think their vote would have counted. These voters could have altered the outcome.

And both states are important to the Democrats’ chances of taking the White House.

Should a fight over the two states be averted, the party still has to be concerned with the superdelegates — a group empowered nearly three decades ago to maintain some insider control over the candidate-selection process. Two nasty possibilities exist — a tie decided by the superdelegates, giving the impression of a backroom deal; or the superdelegates overrule the voters’ decision.

The only way to avoid this is for one of the candidates to come as close as possible to wrapping up the nomination (unlikely) or for the superdelegates to agree to back the winner of the popular vote — which, given the volatility this year, seems unlikely and may not prevent the ugliness.

In the end, there are no easy choices, though McCain’s flipping and flopping should take some of the sting out of his attacks.

South Brunswick Post, The Cranbury Press
The Blog of South Brunswick

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Voting and the constitution

No comment, just a listing of votes on two important bills that have an impact on the fourth Amendment:

An amendment to the FISA revision act, which would have struck provisions providing immunity from civil liability to electronic communication service providers for aiding the government in electronic eavesdropping. A yes vote strips immunity.
Hillary Clinton — not voting
John McCain — no
Barack Obama — yea

On cloture, which prevented a filibuster on the FISA changes. A yes vote sent the bill to the floor; a no vote would have allowed a filibuster and could have resulted in the bill dying:
Hillary Clinton — did not vote
John McCain — yea
Barack Obama — no

On the FISA changes. A yes vote approved the changes, including the immunity provision.
Hillary Clinton — not voting
John McCain — yea
Barack Obama — not voting

The Intelligence Authorization Act, which included a ban on interrogation techniques not included in the Army Field Manual, including waterboarding. It passed 51-45.
Hillary Clinton — not voting
John McCain — no
Barack Obama — not voting

That’s four major votes. None of the candidates get particularly good grades (Clinton missed all four votes; Obama two of them, though he voted the right way twice; and McCain, well, he was 0-4).

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McCain, Iraq and the question of judgment

John McCain is running on Iraq as success story and his supposed expertise in military affairs.

OK. So what does that mean? Let’s consider some recent statements from the Arizona senator and place them within a larger context.

First, this from Think Progress (which has the video):

“Anyone who worries about how long we’re in Iraq does not understand the military and does not understand war,” said McCain.

He then added that it is “really almost insulting to one’s intelligence” to question “how long we’re in Iraq” because he believes the current “strategy” is “succeeding.”

But, as Think Progress points out, McCain’s statements contradict what the Pentagon’s top brass has been saying:

By dismissing as naïve those concerned with how long the U.S. military is mired in Iraq, McCain is claiming that top officials in the Pentagon don’t understand “the military” or “war” as well as he does. In a recent GOP presidential debate, McCain argued, “I’m the expert” on Iraq.

Top military brass, such as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Adm. Mike Mullen and Army Chief of Staff Gen. George Casey, have worried in the past year that “a protracted deployment of U.S. troops”in Iraq would not be a wise move for the military

I don’t want to make too much of what the generals are saying, especially because of the political role that Gen. Petraeus has played in the debate in recent months. But it is interesting to hear someone who has served on the legislative side for more than two decades claim for himself the kind of authority that conservatives said the Johnson administration took for itself during Vietnam — you know, the argument being that the politicians didn’t let the generals do their job.

That said, McCain also goes out of his way to paint a rosy picture of the progress of the surge:

And then on Jan. 13, “McCain added ‘political reconciliation’ to his victory list,” according to a Jan. 14 post on Think Progress:

At a campaign stop today, McCain said that the new law is evidence that “we’re succeeding politically”:

Now, six months ago, the Democrats were saying we’ve lost the war militarily. […]
My friends, you would have to suspend disbelief to believe that it’s not. So then they said, after we succeeded militarily, Well, you can’t succeed politically. You’re not moving forward politically. Well, now we’re succeeding politically.

McClatchy, however, disputed the notion in a story yesterday:

Violence is increasing in Iraq, raising questions about whether the security improvements credited to the increase in U.S. troops may be short-lived.

He’s also likened a withdrawal to surrender:

“If we surrender and wave a white flag, like Senator Clinton wants to do, and withdraw, as Governor Romney wanted to do, then there will be chaos, genocide, and the cost of American blood and treasure would be dramatically higher.”

Higher than what? We’ve already witnessed everything McCain says will follow our withdrawal and, even with our presence there, it appears to come in waves.

Basically, McCain has been too much of a cheerleader on Iraq and is way too committed not only to maintaining a deadly policy, but potentially to escalating it and making it even more deadly and further damaging our already tarnished international reputation.

The question is whether the press will ask the tough questions or work from their prepared script. I guess we have nine months in which to find out.

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