Tag: MOM line

Those crazy wild and crazy cats over in Monmouth and Ocean counties are at it again. They held a press conference this morning at which they released the results of a poll they say shows massive and widespread support for a commuter line running through Monroe, Jamesburg and South Brunswick — the so-called MOM line.

The poll numbers, taken at face value, would seem to show just that. Nearly four in five residents in the three counties polled indicated they supported the South Brunswick alternative.

The problem, however, is that understanding the poll requires that you look a little deeper — at what was asked and what was not.

Let’s start with what was not asked, specifically, whether respondents would support any other alternative but the South Brunswick route. And that question, according to the Power Point presentation made at the press conference (sent to us by the public relations firm working on behalf of MOM supporters), was only asked after a series of questions designed to get local commuters thinking about the difficulty of their commute.

More import is the specific text of the main question:

The South Brunswick Alignment of the MOM rail project proposal, also known as the Monmouth Junction Alignment, is a new passenger train line that will use existing railroad tracks to bring fast, dependable train service to your area. In Ocean County, the line begins in Lakehurst and travels through Manchester, Toms River, Jackson and Lakewood. From Lakewood, the line will pass into Monmouth County through Howell, Farmingdale, Freehold, Manalapan and Englishtown. From Englishtown, the line will continue into Middlesex County, passing through Monroe, Jamesburg and South Brunswick. For area residents, this alignment would permit more transportation options when traveling within the region and also connect residents by rail to places like Trenton, New Brunswick, Metro Park, Newark Airport, New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington DC and Boston. Knowing this, do you favor or oppose this alignment?

That’s a lot of words, so I’ll boil it down. There are two key phrases in this question: “fast, dependable train service” and the statement of fact that comes just before the question, “For area residents, this alignment would permit more transportation options when traveling within the region and also connect residents by rail to places like Trenton, New Brunswick, Metro Park, Newark Airport, New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington DC and Boston.”

Technically true? Perhaps. But it is important to note that most of these options already exist — especially for the people living in Middlesex County who already live relatively close to the Northeast Corridor line and several rail stations.

Simply put, this was a push poll, one designed to get the specific answer desired. In this case, the freeholder boards in Monmouth and Ocean counties paid $18,000 for a public relations firm to create a poll that would prove their contention that people want the line through Monmouth Junction.

What’s surprising is how transparent the effort was. I would have expected $18,000 to buy something a little more sophisticated than what ultimately was produced.

South Brunswick Post, The Cranbury Press
The Blog of South Brunswick

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NJ Transit released a new set of ridership figures that have supporters of the Monmouth Junction variant of the MOM Line crowing.

The figures show that the line running through Monmouth Junction would likely attract 27,450 riders per day, while the Matawan line would attract 24,050 riders and the Red Bank line would attract 16,800 riders. A study from 2005, which assumed a Newark terminus, projected that the Matawan route would have the most riders at 10,900 daily trips, followed by Monmouth Junction at 9,000 trips and Red Bank at 7,900 trips.

The change, according to NJ Transit, was based on two new assumptions: a change in destination from Newark to New York, thanks to a proposed new tunnel under the Hudson River; and new population estimates that go out an extra five years to 2030, which increases anticipated population in western Monmouth County.

I won’t dispute the numbers — NJ Transit didn’t provide a lot of background this week — but focusing solely on the ridership numbers, as Monmouth Junction supporters have been doing creates a misleading picture of the MOM debate. There also are the cost estimates, which peg the South Brunswick line as the most expensive to build and run. The Monmouth Junction alignment would cost $860 million to construct and $49 million to operate, compared to $600 million and $42 million for the Red Bank option and $730 million and $45 million for the Matawan option, according to a 2005 N.J. Transit study.

So consider this: The Monmouth Junction line would serve about 14 percent more riders, but cost about 18 percent more to build than the Matawan line.

In a time of tight budgets, the money should be an important factor — as should the concerns of the people in Middlesex County who would have to live along the route.

For southern Middlesex County, the Monmouth Junction alternative still makes no sense.

South Brunswick Post, The Cranbury Press
The Blog of South Brunswick

E-mail me by clicking here.