John — the news editor here — gets on my case when I get too optimistic about the Mets, but after last season I can’t help it. No doubt, this is a team with flaws — I don’t trust that Jose Valentin can repeat what he did at second last year and there are questions (age-related) about the corner outfield spots.
But the biggest question marks remain the starting pitching. There are an abundance of arms in camp, though it is unclear whether anyone beyond Tom Glavine will provide meaningful innings — and he’s 41. Orlando Hernandez, for instance, set to be the No. 2 starter, already has tweaked himself and missed a few workouts. This wouldn’t be a big deal except he is somewhere between 39 and 163 years old.
Then we have the rest, an interesting mixed bag that includes last year’s surprise (John Maine), a potential diamond in the rough (Oliver Perez, from whom I am predicting big things), a few up-and-comers who may not be ready (Humber and Pelfrey), some retreads (Chan Ho Park, Aaron Sele, Dave Williams when he recovers from his surgery) and some others.
The name not being discussed because it appears the team is committed to his relief role is Aaron Heilmann. This is too back — he may be the best of the bunch.
The issue is of concern because the Phillies have added arms — Adam Eaton and Freddy Garcia. Garcia is a workhorse, though nothing more than a middle-of-the-rotation guy; Eaton possesses electric stuff but has had trouble staying on the mound, but when added to Brett Myers, Cole Hamel and the oldies Jon Lieber and Jamie Moyers, there is depth, if nothing else. I like Hamels, but the Phillies would be crazy to expect too much from him too soon. He may be the next stud arm in the NL — or he could be Mark Prior, a heralded phenom forced into the limelight too quickly.
Certainly, the Phils have the better starting staff, but the Mets bullpen is deep and strong and the Met lineup is far better, going six deep (Alou is a great hitter even at his advanced age, far better and more consistent than the oft-injured Floyd and certainly more reliable than the overrated and overpaid Pat Burrell, his counterpoint in Philly).
Think about it this way: Ryan Howard maybe the best hitter on either team, but it is the only lineup spot where the Phillies have an advantage:
- At best Jimmy Rollins matches Jose Reyes (I take Reyes without much thought).
- Paul LoDuca is a fabulous No. 2, while Shane Victorino remains unproven.
- As good as Chase Utley is in the three hole, Beltran is that much better.
- Ryan Howard is better than Carlos Delgado — this is the negative image of the three hole.
- David Wright or Pat Burrell? Do you have to ask?
- Moises Alou or Aaron Rowland? The only question is whether Alou plays enough.
- Shawn Green or Wes Helms? Does it matter? Helms is a fine bench player and it is likely that Abraham Nunez will get a lot of time here.
- Jose Valentin or Rod Barajas? Valentin is the better hitter, though there is no guarantee he’ll be in the lineup everyday.
The Marlins have some outstanding young arms and there always is the Braves. But the Mets are the reigning division champs — by 12 games — and were a nasty curveball away from a triip to the fall classic a year ago. Have the Phillies made up the 12 games? My sense is no. But I don’t want to get too optimistic (though isn’t that what spring is all about?) — or John will be forced to take me down a peg.
South Brunswick Post, The Cranbury Press
The Blog of South Brunswick
The Cranbury Press Blog
E-mail me by clicking here.
Hank Kalet 