The Phillies are still the team to beat, regardless of the big moves made by their division mates, by the virtue of their big-three at the top of the rotation and Jonathan Paplebon at the back of the bullpen. But the team is going to struggle to score runs, at least until its two injured superstars come back. And those superstars – the unfortunately fragile Chase Utley (106 games missed over the last two years) and Ryan Howard – are both in their 30s. The rest of the team’s most important position players – Shane Victorino, Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Ruiz, Placido Polanco – are over 30, as well.
The team struggled at times last year to score and finished a mediocre seventh in runs scored and eighth in homeruns. It may have more difficulty this year. It won 102 games because of its pitching; the pitching remains the class of the league, but the margin for error for the team is much smaller than it has been for the last few years.
The Braves finished second a year ago and failed to make the playoffs after a horrible swoon in September. It is built on a mix of youth – Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward, much of the rotation – and age – Tim Hudson and Chipper Jones – and is not nearly as good a club as many observers think.
First, the team’s best player, Jones, is at the end of his career and brittle. It’s best pitcher, Hudson, is proving to the same. It’s power-hitting second-baseman, Dan Uggla, is coming off a career high in homers, but a career low in nearly all other categories. Plus, he has no range and is a liability in the infield.
The Braves had the fourth lowest ERA in the league in 2011 – but that was built on a remarkable three months to open the season. The team fell to the middle of the pack in July and August and its pitching staff fell to near the bottom of the heap in September. So, what happened? Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hansen pitched badly in August and then did not pitch in September. The Braves blew an 8.5-game lead in the wild card race and failed to make the playoffs.
It raises questions about the Atlanta pitching staff and the overall makeup of the team and leaves me wondering just how good a team the Braves are.
Washington has a young stud at the top of the rotation. A solid infield and a passable rotation. Jayson Werth cannot be as mediocre as he was last year, though he will never be worth the money the Nats tossed at him. If Michael Morse comes back healthy – and hits like he did after the all-star break last year and Brad Lidge can pitch like he did a few years ago, the Nats could challenge for the wild card.
The Marlins made the biggest splash of the off season. The question is whether the team around Jose Reyes is good enough to contend.
Reyes’ acquisition means that Hanley Ramirez, whose reputation has taken a huge hit, moves to third. This could be a good move for him long term – he never was a particularly good defensive shortstop – but his attitude was a major question mark, even before he was forced to move over. Plus, he’s coming off his worst big-league season, which in turn came off a rather non-descript 2010. Ramirez, therefore, has to be viewed as a question mark for now.
They have a couple of decent young power-hitting outfielders and Emilio Bonaficio gives them a speedy one-two punch at the top of the order. Add Heath Bell and Mark Buerhle to a pitching staff that includes the fragile but nearly unhittable Josh Johnson and you can see why the Marlins are favored to contend.
Contention, however, is going to depend upon a return to prominence by Ramirez, Johnson’s health and the continued growth of guys like Morrison, Stanton and Sanchez.
That leaves us with the Mets, who are off to a 3-0 start. What to say about them? New York is probably a better team than observers are anticipating, though they remain likely to finish last in the division.
The reason is the large number of question marks: How healthy is Johan Santana and can he reclaim his Cy Young form? Which Mike Pelfrey will we see? Can Jonathan Niese continue his growth? Is there enough talent in the veteran bullpen to get the team through the end of close games?
If the good Pelfrey shows up – the 15-game winner — and Niese shows consistent growth, the Mets rotation will go four deep. Dillon Gee could make it five and give the Mets as deep – if not as good — a rotation as any team in the division.
And I like the potential of the line-up with David Wright looking for a big year and the young sluggers Ike Davis and Lucas Dudas appearing ready to make their mark. The new shortstop, Ruben Tejada, has a big-league glove, but remains a question mark with the bat, while second-baseman Daniel Murphy has a big-league bat but a terrible glove. And Josh Thole is still young.
Left and center field are problems. Jason Bay is done. He may be a good guy and he’s had a solid career, but he has become a liability in the lineup. The new centerfielder Andres Torres is brittle and not very good when healthy. Recent call-up Kirk Nieuwenhuis could find himself playing an important role and maybe joining his fellow Mets farmhands (six in the regular lineup at the moment) in the mix.
Ultimately, the East is the Phillies to lose, but nothing is set in stone. My prediction right now is the Phillies will be followed, in order, by the Marlins, Nationals, Braves and Mets, though I wouldn’t count any team out at this point.
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Hank Kalet 