John McCain, as Eugene Robinson says today, has “a big head start in the Fiesta of Forced Smiles — the post-primary, pre-convention phase of the presidential campaign in which former opponents and party elders pledge their support for the presumptive nominee in a photogenic show of unity.”
But that does not mean that McCain has a huge advantage over his as-yet-unnamed opponent.
That’s because, as Robinson says, he “intends to run on positions that most voters reject,” while tying himself to an increasingly irrelevent incumbent. McCain remains very much in favor of the Iraq War, a supporter of the long-war theory that could have us stuck in the desert sands indefinitely with little to gain.
E.J. Dionne Jr. points out how McCain’s thinking could have delitirious effects beyond Iraq and the Muslim world.
(O)ne of John McCain‘s favorite lines — his declaration that “the transcendent challenge of the 21st century is radical Islamic extremists,” or, as he sometimes says, “extremism” — could define the 2008 election.
Whether McCain is right or wrong matters to everything the United States will do in the coming years. It is incumbent upon McCain to explain what he really means by “transcendent challenge.”
Presumably, he’s saying that Islamic extremism is more important than everything else — the rise of China and India as global powers, growing resistance to American influence in Europe, the weakening of America’s global economic position, the disorder and poverty in large parts of Africa, the alienation of significant parts of Latin America from the United States. Is it in our national interest for all these issues to take a back seat to terrorism?
McCain makes his claim even stronger when he uses the phrase “21st century.” Does he mean that in the year 2100, Americans will look back and say that everything else that happened in the century paled in comparison with the war against terrorism?
I know people who answer yes, but the fact remains that terrorism is not an ideology and our battle with it has to be part of a larger, more comprehensive approach to the world. While Osama bin Laden makes for a nice poster boy for extremism, the inferno that has been blazing in Iraq — and in Lebanon, Gaza, the West Bank, etc. — is a result of the power imbalance. Equalize the power — more democracy, of course (though, not by the barrel of a gun), but also more sharing of resources and a greater willingness on the part of the remaining great power to listen and cooperate — and you have a chance to neutralize the disaffection that results in car bombings.
Given this, one has to wonder whether McCain’s vaunted foreign policy credentials will offer a boost to his candidacy in November, or end up an albatross.
If he can’t make the foreign policy argument, his candidacy is dead. As Robinson points out, his thinking on our increasingly dour economic climate is …. well, let’s just say that his admission a while back that he knows little about economics sums things up.
Both candidates will enter the general election cycle with some baggage, and perhaps some bloody wounds, but they still have to be considered the favorites to win a four-year lease to the White House.
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Hank Kalet 