The federal housing bailout bill passed by Congress, which has a promise of a signature from the president, is fine as far as it goes.
The problem, as the progressive economist Dean Baker notes, is that it doesn’t go very far at all.
The bill allows lenders to bring failing mortgages to the Federal Housing Authority (FHA), which will guarantee a new mortgage at 85 percent of the current appraised value of the home. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that lenders will bring 400,000 mortgages to the FHA over the next three years. CBO expects that 140,000 of these mortgages will go into foreclosure a second time, leaving a net of 260,000 homeowners who will hang onto their homes as a result of this program.
By contrast, there are likely to be 2.5 million to 3 million foreclosures in both 2008 and 2009. This means that the housing bill will likely help less than five percent of the families facing foreclosure over the next two years, leaving 95 percent of this group out of luck.
That’s 19 of 20 homeowners that will be left out in the cold, while
securing the multimillion-dollar salaries of the top executives of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and protecting their shareholders from facing the full consequences of their bad stock picks, the bill also provided funds for guaranteeing new mortgages for homeowners facing foreclosure.
Baker touts an alternative:
the Saving Family Homes Act, which would allow many of these homeowners to stay in their homes.
The bill, sponsored by U.S. Rep. Raœl Grijalva, works like this:
The bill temporarily alters the rules on foreclosures. It allows homeowners facing foreclosure the option to stay in their home as renters paying the fair market rent. They would be allowed to remain in their home for up to 20 years. The bill would only apply to homes that were purchased for less than the median price in the area. This ensures that it only benefits those most in need of help, rather than millionaires who made bad bets in the housing market.
But most of those in Congress lack the creativity — or, more important, the political courage — to buck the conventional wisdom, which generally sides with the money.