The news is still bad

The governor, during his third state of the state address, continued what has been a long litany of dire pronouncements that in the end amount to nothing. Only this time, he attempted to borrow a page from President-elect Barack Obama and recast the bad news through a hopeful lens.
New Jerseyans’ “determination remains strong,” their “drive is undiminished” and “work ethic knows no bounds” — which will aid the state in digging itself out of its mess.
The problem is that New Jersey is not hurting because of the recession, though the national economy has not made matters any better.
The reality, as the governor has been saying since he first took office, is that the state has been making too many bad fiscal choices over the years, avoiding the difficult decisions and shifting money from one pocket to another and calling it income. That allowed it to avoid painful budgetary decisions — until the 2006 budget standoff led to a government shutdown. Since then, state government has been a bit more honest about what it faces, though it has remained unable to do what needs to be done to change the way we spend and raise money.
The national economy has made these problems worse, by eroding state revenues at a time when the state needs to spend added money on its social safety net and on infrastructure projects that would generate jobs. In the past, the state would borrow money to plug the gap, but the governor is proposing a belt-tightening that may address some of the long-term budget problems but lead to added pain now.
The governor admits this.

By the close of the calendar year, the deepening recession had required us to cut spending by another $800 million. That’s a total of $1.4 billion in cuts in this fiscal year alone.Let me repeat — $1.4 billion …… not in the rate of growth, but in absolute dollars.

It’s been painful, and we’ve had to make many ugly choices. But together with my partners in the Legislature, we are making the hard choices.

The question remains, however, whether they are making the right choices. The governor announced likely cuts in state aid to towns while making it clear that they will not be able to raise taxes to offset the cuts. That will just force the pain downward, making them slash their services.
In the end, Jon Shure, president of the liberal New Jersey Policy Perspective, hit it right in his comments to The New York Times, giving the speech “mixed marks” and saying “he would have liked to hear more concrete plans, rather than a campaign-style list of greatest hits.”

“The ratio between the accomplishments of the past and proposals for the future was far more in favor of the past, especially compared to his past speeches,” he said. “So it lacked a coherent vision of what we want the state to be.”

Christie’s in

So, Chris Christie makes it official — he’s in the race and mainstream Republicans are ecstatic.

But should they be? New Jersey has become a consistently Democratic and Republicans, when forced to run in a contested primary, are forced to run to their right, making them less palatable to the general public.

And while the public is angry over the state of the state and not particularly pleased with Jon Corzine’s efforts, he doesn’t face the kind of deep anger we’ve seen directed at Jim Florio.

I want to point readers toward this quote from today’s Star-Ledger:

Christie could face trouble in the GOP primary, political experts said, drawing a parallel between a Christie-Lonegan matchup and the 2001 primary battle, when the party favorite, Bob Franks, was defeated by conservative Bret Schundler.

“The Republican primary can be captured by a conservative with a grassroots organization” like Lonegan’s Americans for Prosperity, said Joseph Marbach, a political scientist at Seton Hall University. He said Christie needs to “show he’s conservative enough” and has a good chance to beat Corzine.

What’s missing? A paragraph that explains what happened to Schundler in the general election. What happened? He lost in a landslide.

That was followed by Corzine’s rather convincing defeat of Doug Forrester — just one year after a sitting Democratic governor resigned the governorship.

Republicans, in fact, have won only two statewide races since Republican Gov. Tom Kean’s two terms in office ended in 1989 — and those races, won by Christie Whitman, were won by slim margins following a massive tax revolt that shifted control of the state Legislature to the GOP. That shift lasted just eight years.

GOP weaknesses exposed again

The state’s Republican Party is not exactly doing well. First, there was the embarressing search for a Senate candidate that lasted nearly until the filing deadline in April and resulted in the selection of an old name (Dick Zimmer) at a time when a new face might have been more appropriate.

And now, we get this bit of odd news:

CNN’s Lou Dobbs is thinking of running for governor of New Jersey.

Several well-connected Republicans say they’ve heard the buzz that Dobbs, famous for his sharp commentary about Washington policies and politics, may be turning his sights on Trenton and has inquired about the steps necessary to start a campaign.

Yes, Lou Dobbs of “Lou Dobbs Tonight”; Lou Dobbs, the anti-illegal immigrant crusader and anti-Washington populist, who lives on “a 300-acre horse farm in Wantage, Sussex County.”

Dobbs, of course, refuses to comment and I suspect that, in the end, there will be no Dobbs candidacy. But the seriousness with which this has been met says all you need to know about the GOP at a time when the governor’s approval rating is just a hair north of the president’s.

More bad news from the governor

The governor’s proposed $33 billion budget proposal has not exactly been popular thanks to a slew of cuts to propular and, in some cases, necessary programs. And yet, things just maybe about to get worse. Gov. Jon Corzine told the Asbury Park Press that a national recession could cut into revenues, necessitating more cuts. Ouch.

South Brunswick Post, The Cranbury Press
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