elections – Page 4

All I’m asking for is a little respect, just a little bit

We haven’t even gotten out of July and we’re being subjected to this kind of nonsense. The state is facing a massive deficit, has been for ears, one created in a bipartisan manner through the use of shell games and risk avoidance, and Chris Christie wants the governor to accept responsibility for everything and to resign in shame? Please.

Can we treat voters with some respect? Jon Corzine has made little headwa toward fixing the state’s fiscal disaster, but Christie has offered nothing and the voters deserve a debate over what kinds of sacrifices will need to be made — whether it means higher taxes, an unprecedented slashing of services (many of which are popular), historic government restructuring or all of the above.

Mr. Christie has a responsibility at this point to explain what he would cut, who it would affect and why he thinks we can do without. His vague talk has been designed to avoid angering voters, but that should not be his goal. If he thinks he can do a better job governing the state of New Jersey — and it is very possible that he can — he needs to explain what he would do differently than Gov. Corzine and not just talk about making tough choices.

More polling evidence: The governor is unpopular

For Gov. Jon Corzine, there is little positive that can be found in today’s Quinnipiac Poll, one that has Republican Chris Christie leading 50-40 against the incumbent. Consider:

Gov. Corzine leads 73 – 19 percent among Democratic likely voters, while Christie leads 88 – 7 percent among Republicans and 56 – 32 percent among independent voters. Men back Christie 55 – 38 percent, while women give the Republican a 46 – 43 percent edge.

All New Jersey registered voters disapprove 56 – 36 percent of the job Corzine is doing, his lowest grade ever and down from a 53 – 38 percent disapproval rating May 20.

Voters say 55 – 37 percent that Corzine does not deserve to be reelected. Democrats say four more years 66 – 25 percent, while he gets an 84 – 9 percent thumbs down from Republicans and a 64 – 28 percent boot from independent voters.

Things have gotten worse in New Jersey since Corzine became Governor, 52 percent of voters say, the highest measure for this grim outlook.

None of this is good news for the governor, though I suspect it isn’t fatal for him — there is about five months to go before voters actually have to touch their screens in the voting booth and there are aspects of the poll that Christie should take as showing some level of his own vulnerability:

Two-thirds of New Jerseyans are dissaitisfied with the state of the state, but 40 percent still back Corzine and 10 percent have not made up their mind.
About 40 percent of respondents could not judge Christie’s leadership qualities or his honest and trustworthiness (in fact, the 42 percent who view him as “honest and trustworthy” is the same number as view Corzine the same way, though Corzine’s negatives on this — 44 percent — are more than double Christie’s — 20 percent).
Christie is given a higher mark on budgetary matters than Corzine — 45-36 — but nearly half of the state’s voters still know little about him and he has yet to offer a plan. The question is what will happen to the numbers if/when he does so (Remember Byrne-Batemen 1977).

If I were a betting man, I would still put my money on Christie winning (this is not an endorsement), but I wouldn’t give odds or points. And I’d keep the bet small — don’t want to lose your house on a bet that is as far from a sure thing as anything can be.

And the race begins

What we knew a few months ago is now official: Gov. Jon Corzine will be challenged in November by former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie.

Polls in recent weeks show Christie with a lead and Corzine with low approval ratings. But it’s unclear how deep Christie’s support is and whether, when push comes to shove, the Democrat-leaning independents and Democrats angry with Corzine will vote for Christie, stay home or come back into the Democratic fold.

Remember the way statewide races tend to go — polls show a close race or a Republican win, and then the first Tuesday in November comes along and the Democrat wins by a good 8 points of more.

Consider what Peter Woolley, a political scientist at Fairleigh Dickinson University who runs their Public Mind polling, said Monday:

At the state level, Republicans agree overwhelmingly on just one thing: They don’t like the job Jon Corzine has done as governor (91%). “But,” says Peter Woolley, a political scientist and director of the poll, “their disapproval of Corzine will not be enough to carry them. They will need significant allies and votes outside the party.

“More than nine of 10 Republicans are white in a state with sizable ethnic minorities,” Woolley noted. “Whoever leads the Republicans in the general election campaign will have to reach well beyond regular Republicans and beyond leafy suburbs.”

My sense — at I don’t have numbers to back me up — is that Christie will have a low support ceiling, similar to the one Christie Whitman dealt with in her two narrow wins.

And there is the cautionary tale of Raymond Bateman and Brendan “One-term” Byrne. Bateman, the Republican candidate in 1977, was expected to know Byrne out of office because of public anger over the new income tax. Bateman, however, lost when he offered a tax and budget plan that lacked credibility and Byrne made those who tagged him with his nickname look pretty foolish.

So, I make no predictions.

Thoughts on school board votes: Divining meaning from the random

Before anyone jumps to conclusions about Tuesday’s school election results, they need to consider the history.

Yes, more than 70 percent of school budgets were approved around the state, according to NJ.com. (The percentage was higher locally.) This may seem like a shockingly high percentage. When placed within its historical context, however, it isn’t.

A quick review of school budget results going back to 1976 shows that in 23 of the last 34 years, including this year, more than two-thirds of budget passed statewide (more than 70 percent passed in 19 of those years); in only five years did less than 60 percent pass — including 1976, when 44 percent passed, the only year in which the numbers dipped below 50.

The lean years, for the most part, correspond with public anger over New Jersey taxes — 1990 and 1991 were the Florio backlash years, 2006 was the property tax reform/budget shutdown year, 1994 featured Christie Whitman’s assault on spending and the 1976 votes came just a month after the creation of the first state income tax in response to court rulings on education funding (Robinson v. Cahill).

Given this history, perhaps yesterday’s results were surprising. Republicans, for instance, are trying to cast Jon Corzine in the role of Jim Florio and re-stoke the anger of that earlier era. And voters are angry about a lot of things — at least according to polls that show a majority of New Jerseyans disapproving of the governor’s efforts to date.

And yet, most budget passed — many by comfortable margins.

What does this mean? It is difficult to say. There are two historical trends butting up against each other — one in which a generalized state-level public anger is taken out on school budgets and another in which voters tend to support educational spending.

Remember, Jim Florio lost by less than 25,000 votes to Whitman in 1993 despite being one of the most unpopular governors in the state’s history and Brendan Byrne won a second term in 1977 despite predictions to the contrary. And Robert Menendez, in the 2006 Senate race, was down by double digits in the polls late in the campaign against Tom Kean Jr. — and he won by double digits.

I have no idea where all of this is going. What I do know, however, is that we have a long way to go before voters have to decide (we don’t even have an official Republican challenger yet). And yesterday’s results did little to clarify this.

The vanishing Republicans of South Brunswick

I’ve heard some rumors that there are Republicans living in South Brunswick.

Yes, according to these rumors, there are actual, died-in-the-wool members of the Grand Old Party going about their business, meeting at Pierre’s and going through the electoral motions.

I want to believe these rumors. After all, it is important that there be at least two function and viable parties pushing their agendas and making their cases to voters. But I’ve found little evidence that these rumors are true.

I have talked with people who call themselves Republicans. I’ve seen them around town at various functions, received letters and witnessed them speaking at council meetings.

But there are no Republicans sitting on the Township Council. Democrats control nearly every board and commission in South Brunswick. Maybe Republicans are like those night creatures in the movies, able to survive under only the most constrained of circumstances. Maybe they are allergic to the light, or voters are allergic to their entreaties.

It has been eight years since a Republican was elected to the Township Council and another six since a Republican not named Ted Van Hessen was elected. That’s a long time in the wilderness.

And it’s not like it has been close. Consider this year’s results:

Incumbent Democrats on the Township Council won a resounding victory in Tuesday’s election, defeating their Republican challengers by an almost 2-to-1 margin at the polls.

Council members Carol Barrett, Joe Camarota and Charles Carley were all re-elected to the three, four-year seats on the ballot this year. They defeated first-time Republican candidates John O’Sullivan and Steve Walrond.

Ms. Barrett, of Mahogany Court, was the top vote earner in the election, garnering 9,914 votes. Mr. Camarota received 9,781 votes, followed by Mr. Carley who received 9,765 votes.

Mr. O’Sullivan led the Republican ticket with 5,363 votes, followed by Mr. Walrond who received 5,231 votes.

The 2006 results were similar:

The Democratic incumbents, Mayor Frank Gambatese and Councilman Chris Killmurray, won in all 30 township voting districts, earning new four-year terms on the council. Three Democratic seats will be up in 2008.

Mayor Gambatese received 58.3 percent of the vote with 5,529. His opponent, Republican Lynda Woods Cleary, received 29.6 of the votes with 2,660. In addition, 12.1 percent or 1,084 write-in ballots were cast, of which at least 1,000 were for former Mayor Debra Johnson, said Township Clerk Barbar Nyitrai.

Mr. Killmurray received 64.4 percent of votes cast for council with 5,574. His opponent, Republican Nannette Craig, received 35.6 percent or 3,086 votes.

These are some lopsided results, which is why I have to wonder whether the existence of a local Republican Party is more than a rumor.

I am at a loss as to how the Republicans can turn this around, how they can remake themselves so they offer a reasonable alternative, an opposing voice at a time of Democratic control. This year’s candidates, for instance, were the best the party has had to offer in years and still they barely registered. Part of it was a lack of message — it’s not enough to say a different voice is needed. You still have to explain what that voice would say and how it might have an impact on council business. That was never offered.

But still, it is difficult for me to understand how candidates for Township Council can manage to get so few votes in a year of record turnout. It just boggles my mind.