Corzine – Page 2 – Hank Kalet

Poll positions: A GOP firm issues its own numbers

OK, so we have another poll showing us something we already know — voters in New Jersey are not happy with the governor and, at least at the moment, ready to hand the reins off to his Republican challenger.

But the poll in question — conducted by Strategic Vision — may not be the best one to hang one’s hat on, primarily because of two things:

Strategic Visions has among its clients a bevy of conservative groups, including U.S. English and is run by a former campaign operative for Bob Dole’s presidential race.
The other issue with the poll results can be seen in this bit of info:

The results of the poll also showed that 50 percent of those polled approved of President Barack Obama’s overall job performance, with 40 percent disapproving; and 10 percent undecided. When asked if they approved of the President’s handling of the economy, 47 percent approved and 45 percent disapproved.

That means that Strategic Visions has Obama at about 10-12 percentage points below what other New Jersey polls have shown, and may explain why a race that most polls have at about a 7-or-so-point gap is at 15 points in this poll.

I have one other major question: Who commissioned this poll? Strategic Vision does not appear to function as the Gallup, Monmouth or Fairleigh Dickinson polls do. They seem, from their own literature, to be client-driven. So who’s the client in this case?

This description of the polling firm from a 2006 Media Matters piece may shed some light:

Far from being “independent,” Strategic Vision is a Republican polling firm. Johnson, the company’s founder and CEO, worked on former Sen. Bob Dole’s (R-KS) 1988 presidential campaign. Johnson’s personal website — which identifies Johnson at the top as a “Republican conservative” — further notes that while working “at Associated Industries of Florida, he assisted in the development of the association’s political operations department that played a pivotal role in Republicans capturing the State Senate in 1994 and State House in 1996.” Johnson was also involved in Republican Florida governor Jeb Bush’s first gubernatorial campaign. Most media outlets identify Strategic Vision as a “Republican polling company,” such as a March 13 Philadelphia Inquirer article. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel noted on March 12 that Strategic Vision “has a Republican history,” and the company’s hometown paper, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, noted in a March 13 article that the “polling firm lists to the GOP side.”

No one would be foolish enough to argue that Corzine is actually leading or that the race is particularly close. But the prevalence of polling in the coverage, especially when polls like this one get the headlines, tend to create a momentum of their own, making the election results seem a forgone conclusion.

As reporters, we need to be very careful to identify those polls that are most reliable and, should we opt to use polls from places like Strategic Vision, make sure we identify who the polling firm is and take as close a look as we can at the results and how they match up with other more reliable polls.

All I’m asking for is a little respect, just a little bit

We haven’t even gotten out of July and we’re being subjected to this kind of nonsense. The state is facing a massive deficit, has been for ears, one created in a bipartisan manner through the use of shell games and risk avoidance, and Chris Christie wants the governor to accept responsibility for everything and to resign in shame? Please.

Can we treat voters with some respect? Jon Corzine has made little headwa toward fixing the state’s fiscal disaster, but Christie has offered nothing and the voters deserve a debate over what kinds of sacrifices will need to be made — whether it means higher taxes, an unprecedented slashing of services (many of which are popular), historic government restructuring or all of the above.

Mr. Christie has a responsibility at this point to explain what he would cut, who it would affect and why he thinks we can do without. His vague talk has been designed to avoid angering voters, but that should not be his goal. If he thinks he can do a better job governing the state of New Jersey — and it is very possible that he can — he needs to explain what he would do differently than Gov. Corzine and not just talk about making tough choices.

The LG question

Republican Chris Christie has made his choice for lieutenant governor — Monmouth County Sheriff Kim Guadagno.

It was one of those highly anticipated electoral moments, and yet I have to wonder just what the choice of an LG will mean in the 2009 governor’s race.

Remember, this is the first time voters will see a running mate on a gubernatorial ticket and, while there are those who expect the LG slot to have an impact similar to the choice of a vice presidential running mate, I just don’t know if that is true.

There is no history of that here and it is unclear how the LG post plays in other states.

In the case of Guadagno and Christie, she comes from a county that is a Republican stronghold, but is not a household name in the state. She does vary the ticket some demographically, but not as much as she could have — the GOP is running two candidates from Republican counties who both are prosecutors with little experience beyond that.

There are rumors that Jon Corzine will pick a former “Apprentice” winner as his running mate — an African American from Franklin who has roots in East Windsor. Randal Pinkett

is a Rutgers University graduate and Rhodes Scholar, according to his Web site, randalpinkett.com. The Franklin Township, Somerset County, resident is described on the site as an “entrepreneur, speaker, author, scholar and community servant.”

Will he help? There are some who think he will aid with turnout among minority voters, though one has to wonder if his TV ties will play well.

Then again, this election, ultimately, will boil down to a referendum on Corzine and whether people think Christie can do a better job under difficult circumstances.

More polling evidence: The governor is unpopular

For Gov. Jon Corzine, there is little positive that can be found in today’s Quinnipiac Poll, one that has Republican Chris Christie leading 50-40 against the incumbent. Consider:

Gov. Corzine leads 73 – 19 percent among Democratic likely voters, while Christie leads 88 – 7 percent among Republicans and 56 – 32 percent among independent voters. Men back Christie 55 – 38 percent, while women give the Republican a 46 – 43 percent edge.

All New Jersey registered voters disapprove 56 – 36 percent of the job Corzine is doing, his lowest grade ever and down from a 53 – 38 percent disapproval rating May 20.

Voters say 55 – 37 percent that Corzine does not deserve to be reelected. Democrats say four more years 66 – 25 percent, while he gets an 84 – 9 percent thumbs down from Republicans and a 64 – 28 percent boot from independent voters.

Things have gotten worse in New Jersey since Corzine became Governor, 52 percent of voters say, the highest measure for this grim outlook.

None of this is good news for the governor, though I suspect it isn’t fatal for him — there is about five months to go before voters actually have to touch their screens in the voting booth and there are aspects of the poll that Christie should take as showing some level of his own vulnerability:

Two-thirds of New Jerseyans are dissaitisfied with the state of the state, but 40 percent still back Corzine and 10 percent have not made up their mind.
About 40 percent of respondents could not judge Christie’s leadership qualities or his honest and trustworthiness (in fact, the 42 percent who view him as “honest and trustworthy” is the same number as view Corzine the same way, though Corzine’s negatives on this — 44 percent — are more than double Christie’s — 20 percent).
Christie is given a higher mark on budgetary matters than Corzine — 45-36 — but nearly half of the state’s voters still know little about him and he has yet to offer a plan. The question is what will happen to the numbers if/when he does so (Remember Byrne-Batemen 1977).

If I were a betting man, I would still put my money on Christie winning (this is not an endorsement), but I wouldn’t give odds or points. And I’d keep the bet small — don’t want to lose your house on a bet that is as far from a sure thing as anything can be.

And the race begins

What we knew a few months ago is now official: Gov. Jon Corzine will be challenged in November by former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie.

Polls in recent weeks show Christie with a lead and Corzine with low approval ratings. But it’s unclear how deep Christie’s support is and whether, when push comes to shove, the Democrat-leaning independents and Democrats angry with Corzine will vote for Christie, stay home or come back into the Democratic fold.

Remember the way statewide races tend to go — polls show a close race or a Republican win, and then the first Tuesday in November comes along and the Democrat wins by a good 8 points of more.

Consider what Peter Woolley, a political scientist at Fairleigh Dickinson University who runs their Public Mind polling, said Monday:

At the state level, Republicans agree overwhelmingly on just one thing: They don’t like the job Jon Corzine has done as governor (91%). “But,” says Peter Woolley, a political scientist and director of the poll, “their disapproval of Corzine will not be enough to carry them. They will need significant allies and votes outside the party.

“More than nine of 10 Republicans are white in a state with sizable ethnic minorities,” Woolley noted. “Whoever leads the Republicans in the general election campaign will have to reach well beyond regular Republicans and beyond leafy suburbs.”

My sense — at I don’t have numbers to back me up — is that Christie will have a low support ceiling, similar to the one Christie Whitman dealt with in her two narrow wins.

And there is the cautionary tale of Raymond Bateman and Brendan “One-term” Byrne. Bateman, the Republican candidate in 1977, was expected to know Byrne out of office because of public anger over the new income tax. Bateman, however, lost when he offered a tax and budget plan that lacked credibility and Byrne made those who tagged him with his nickname look pretty foolish.

So, I make no predictions.