An interesting take from Politics NJ calculations and turmoil that followed the announcement yesterday that Sen. Peter Inverso is not seeking re-election. The upshot is that the Democrats could go for an older candidate from Hamilton — Gil Lugossy or Skip Cimino — though that seems an absurd approach when dealing with someone like Bill Baroni.
(S)ome Democrats insist Baroni is beatable in a toss-up district, pointing specifically to his strong connections with the upper echelons of a national Republican Party in trouble.
There is some thought that a Hamiltonian with experience in elected office and deep community roots — ideally going back to the Chambersburg migration from Trenton to Hamilton — a (former Sheriff) Gilbert Lugossy, for example, or a (former Assemblyman) Anthony Cimino — would provide exactly the kind of gravitas transfusion at the top of the ticket that could propel the Dems to victory in November.
Anything is possible, I guess. But Baroni has built deep connections not only to Hamilton, but to Democratic South Brunswick — the district’s second largest town. He has carried the township in both of his runs, making him the only Republican aside from Inverso to carry South Brunswick in about a decade. (Even retired Police Chief Michael Paquette couldn’t carry his home town, losing it to Greenstein by 40 votes and Baroni by about 60.) The chances of an old lion having real success in South Brunswick at the expense of Baroni appear slim, though I suspect that the overwhelmingly Democratic voters of Monroe and Plainsboro would be there for the taking (Monroe and Plainsboro were the only towns in the district to back Dan Bensen, Greenstein’s running mate).
And all the talk about Hamilton, though, ignores this fact: Assemblywoman Linda Greenstein lost Hamilton in 2003 by about 2,000 votes and in 2005 by about 700 votes, yet she’s still standing, primarily because she has a huge base in Monroe and Plainsboro.
As for tying Baroni to the national party — this is a real stretch. Yes, he is close to John McCain, but he also vocally endorsed the civil union legislation, is a proponent of clean elections law and ethics reform and has already won endorsement from CWA. Not exactly the profile of a Bush acolyte.
Plus — and this is key — no one knows how the botched tax reform effort will play out electorally. Will the Democrats’ failure to deliver on anything other than a tax credit cost them votes in high-tax towns like Hamilton and West Windsor? I wouldn’t bet against it.
The only thing we know for sure is that Sen. Inverso’s retirement has altered the dynamic in the district.
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Hank Kalet 