Realism and the irrationality of conventional wisdom

I was critical a week or so ago of Chris Hedges’ call for the antiwar left to consider third-party candidates who are unequivocal on the war, given that a John McCain presidency would likely result if there was a mass revolt.

But then I read stories like this — via Chris Floyd’s Empire Burlesque — and I think that maybe Hedges is right. Here are two quotations from the AP story that raise the hair on the back of my neck and make me wonder if he is pandering or lost on this:

“The truth is that my foreign policy is actually a return to the traditional bipartisan realistic policy of George Bush’s father, of John F. Kennedy, of, in some ways, Ronald Reagan, and it is George Bush that’s been naive and it’s people like John McCain and, unfortunately, some Democrats that have facilitated him acting in these naive ways that have caused us so much damage in our reputation around the world,” he said.

Foreign policy realism is code for “I’d use force, but I’d be less likely to be a cowboy.” It doesn’t mean he’d be less likely to flex his muscles than McCain or Bush, only that he’d be more careful about creating a coalition — a la, the first President Bush and the 1991 Gulf War, which Obama said relied on a large coalition and had carefully defined objectives.

He then tried to tie current Bush administration policies to Hillary Clinton.

“I do think that Sen. Clinton would understand that George Bush’s policies have failed, but in many ways she has been captive to the same politics that led her to vote for authorizing the war in Iraq,” he said. “Since 9/11 the conventional wisdom has been that you’ve got to look tough on foreign policy by voting and acting like the Republicans, and I disagree with that.”

Instead, he appears to endorse a different kind of conventional wisdom, one still tied to the notion of American exceptionalism and leadership, that still relies on the idea that we have a right and responsibility to reshape the world to our needs — so long as we can cobble together a decent-sized international coalition.

Floyd deconstructs the comments this way:

Obama is also signaling to the real masters of the United States, the military-corporate complex, that he is a “safe pair of hands” — a competent technocrat who won’t upset the imperial applecart but will faithfully follow the 60-year post-war paradigm of leaving “all options on the table” and doing “whatever it takes” to keep the great game of geopolitical dominance going strong.

What other conclusion can you draw from Obama’s reference to these avatars, and his very pointed identification with them? He is saying, quite clearly, that he will practice foreign policy just as they did. And what they do? Committed, instigated, abetted and countenanced a relentless flood of crimes, murders, atrocities, deceptions, corruptions, mass destruction and state terrorism.

This is a difficult pill to swallow, if you’re in anyway looking for a candidate to redirect the United States away from its long-standing imperial ambitions.

This brings me to a piece that ran last week in The Guardian (U.K.) — Tuesday on Alternet — by a couple of journalists from The Nation. In it, Naomi Klein and Jeremy Scahill say antiwar voters who uncritically back a Democrat are making a “serious strategic mistake.”

There is no question that the Bush administration has proven impervious to public pressure. That’s why it’s time for the anti-war movement to change tactics. We should direct our energy where it can still have an impact: the leading Democratic contenders.

Many argue otherwise. They say that if we want to end the war, we should simply pick a candidate who is not John McCain and help them win: We’ll sort out the details after the Republicans are evicted from 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Some of the most prominent anti-war voices–from MoveOn.org to the magazine we write for, The Nation–have gone this route, throwing their weight behind the Obama campaign.

This is a serious strategic mistake. It is during a hotly contested campaign that anti-war forces have the power to actually sway U. S. policy. As soon as we pick sides, we relegate ourselves to mere cheerleaders.

And when it comes to Iraq, there is little to cheer. Look past the rhetoric and it becomes clear that neither Barack Obama nor Hillary Clinton has a real plan to end the occupation. They could, however, be forced to change their positions–thanks to the unique dynamics of the prolonged primary battle.

Despite the calls for Clinton to withdraw in the name of “unity,” it is the very fact that Clinton and Obama are still fighting it out, fiercely vying for votes, that presents the anti-war movement with its best pressure point. And our pressure is badly needed.

Klein and Scahill point out that the Democrats have been receiving significant cash from the military-industrial complex with a bottom-line tied to the prolonging the war.

In sharp contrast to this downsized occupation is the unequivocal message coming from hundreds of soldiers who served in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iraq Veterans Against the War, who held the historic “Winter Soldier” hearings in Silver Spring, Md. earlier this month, are not supporting any candidate or party. Instead they are calling for immediate, unconditional withdrawal of all U.S. soldiers and contractors. Coming from peace activists, the “out now” position has been dismissed as naive. It is distinctly harder to ignore coming from hundreds who have served–and continue to serve–on the frontlines.

The candidates know that much of the passion fueling their campaigns flows from the desire among so many rank-and-file Democrats to end this disastrous war. It is this desire for change that has filled stadiums and campaign coffers.

Crucially, the candidates have already shown that they are vulnerable to pressure from the peace camp: When The Nation revealed that neither candidate was supporting legislation that would ban the use of Blackwater and other private security companies in Iraq, Clinton abruptly changed course. She became the most important U. S. political leader to endorse the ban, scoring a point on Obama, who opposed the invasion from the start.

This is exactly where we want the candidates: outdoing each other to prove how serious they are about ending the war. That kind of issue-based battle has the power to energize voters and break the cynicism that is threatening both campaigns.

Obama’s comments last week, however, along with Clinton’s “pragmatic” vote on the war in 2002, offer me little hope.

South Brunswick Post, The Cranbury Press
The Blog of South Brunswick

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The best sign of spring

No, not the cardinal I saw this morning high in the tree in the front yard.
Not the tufts of grass sprouting up from dormant law.

Not the little buds on the rose bush on the flower bed.

All of these are good signs, no doubt.

No, the best sign of spring is the news that Johan Santana (AP picture from NY Mets Web site) will be taking the mound this afternoon against the Florida Marlins to kick off the Mets’ 2008 season.

Spring, in baseball, is about hope — even for teams like the Marlins, the Washington Nationals and the Kansas City Royals. For the Mets, opening day hopefully will be the beginning of a season-long cleansing of the soul, a 162-day erasure of last season’s ugly and painful collapse.

This team continues to have significant questions:

  • Age and health — Carlos Delgado, Moises Alou, Pedro Martinez, Duaner Sanchez, Carols Beltran, Orlando Hernandez and Luis Castillo are either coming off injuries or bad years or are injured. Each of them is imporant for the season.
  • New faces — Santana, Ryan Church and Brian Schneider need to provide what is expected. Santana, of course, is the big one, but Church needs to hit and field well enough to make Met fans forget the promise that Lastings Milledge had. And Brian Schneider needs to show what a strong defensive catcher can mean for the pitching, especially the bullpen.
  • Maine and Perez — if these guys repeat their 2007 performances, albeit with a bit more consistency, the Mets will be tough to beat.
  • Jose Reyes — he came up small during the second half and even smaller during the collapse. No surprise, of course; as Reyes goes, so go the Mets.
  • Bullpen — if the starters can consistently get into the seventh, this may not be as much of an issue, but the relievers have to do better than they did a year ago. In particular, Aaron Heilmann has to come up big as the eighth-inning guy, Billy Wagner has to remain healthy and get some rest and the other guys have to do their jobs. If Sanchez is healthy and can regain some of his 2006 form, the team can turn what is a question mark into a plus sign.

The rest of the division is interesting, but just as flawed. The Braves have a solid lineup, but a weak outfield and an aging starting rotation that features two guys in their 40s and another who is coming off several seasons of injuries. The Phillies’ pitching is a mess after Cole Hamels (can Brett Myers return to the starting rotation and who pitches after him? Is Brad Lidge healthy and what of his mental make-up?). The Marlins and Nationals are, to put it mildly, just plain awful.

My predictions, for what it’s worth: Mets in a close race over the Phillies, with the Braves in third followed by the Nationals and Marlins. The Cubs will win the Central in a tight race over the Brewers and the Diamondbacks should repeat in another jumbled race, followed by the Padres as the NL Wild Card, the Rockies and Dodgers.

The top nine teams will be separated in the standings by only a handful of games.

In the AL, look for the Red Sox, Tigers and Angels to win their divisions in close races, with the Mariners edging out the Yankees and Indians for the Wild Card. For the Yankees, this would mean a disappointing final season for the ballpark in the Bronx. But then, I’ve been wrong about this in the past — a fact I’m sure that Yankee fans will be all too willing to remind me of.

South Brunswick Post, The Cranbury Press
The Blog of South Brunswick

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The Bush extension

Glenn Greenwald offers a spot-on take on John McCain’s foreign policy thinking — a dangerous extension of the Bush doctrine that supports the cliches used (“a third Bush term,” etc.). A McCain presidency will mean an extension of the imperial project, the notion that the United States has both the right and obligation to run the world’s affairs.

It is, as I’ve been writing, the height of hubris and connected to the argument that Chris Hedges has been making, that the belief that history moves in a progressive direction (by progressive, I don’t mean liberal, but in a single direction) brings with it a rationalization of violence, a sense that the ends (a better world, the eradication of evil, etc.) justify the means.

South Brunswick Post, The Cranbury Press
The Blog of South Brunswick

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