The surge is working?

The new conventional wisdom is that the surge has worked, that Iraq is entering a period of calm and that voters are less concerned about the war than they have been — which would then make John McCain a strong candidate in the fall.

The conventional wisdom, as usual, has some flaws, as Juan Cole points out. Here are a couple of excerpts from today’s post on his blog:

Ambassador Marc Ginsburg is astonished that John McCain could win in Florida on a platform of a Hundred Years War in Iraq and phony slogans about “victory” that McCain is careful never to define. In my view, McCain’s mantra about “victory” in Iraq is the 2008 equivalent of Nixon having a “secret plan” to end the Vietnam War in 1968. Somebody should please ask McCain what “victory” would look like exactly and how he would get there. Intensively patrolling some neighborhoods and cutting them off from traffic with blast walls are not measures that can be kept up for very long. Then what? Besides, someone please do me a favor and actually read the list of bombings and killings appended at the end of this post, occuring in downtown Baghdad and elsewhere, and tell me why John McCain thinks things are just hunky dory there. Is it a racist thing where it doesn’t matter how many Iraqis are killed as long as US troops aren’t? Even then, 5 US troops were blown up on Monday. Yeah, that’s real calm.

….

A new poll finds that the percentage of Americans who think the war to overthrow Saddam Hussein was worth it to the US declined from 35% to only 32% between December and January. The percentage who thought it was not worth it rose from 56% to 59% according to the same poll. It turns out that the American public is not impressed with a mere reduction in violence nowadays from apocalyptic levels last year this time. They want to know why we went there in the first place, and why their sacrifice of blood and treasure was worthwhile. No one, including McCain really has an answer for that.

Iraq, however, is just not that important. Go figure.

South Brunswick Post, The Cranbury Press
The Blog of South Brunswick

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Quite blue in Monroe– and more than a little insane

We found this blog today, an odd and cranky bit of nonsense that focuses on Monroe and more generally on the Republican Party (which he describes as the “Red Menace”).

In this entry, he introduces himself:

I am the Blue Bandito. I am announcing myself to mankind. I have dedicated my life to fighting against the evil red menace of Neo-Con Republican evil.

I am giving you fair warning, Evil-Doers, I am coming for you. I will denounce until you renounce. Your lies have gone on for too long. Your false allegations, corrupt tactics and politics of personal destruction will now be met with resistance. I am your nemesis.

Repent or face ideological destruction.

I will start where all Superheros begin, at home. My home is Monroe Township, NJ. Do not try to find me for I am an elusive ghost. I will sense you coming before you even know you are doing it. I am all seeing.

We must turn the evil red tide before it is two late. I will prevail. Where you see the blue “BB” know that the Blue Bandit has left his mark.

I am here to protect the weak, the elderly, the poor and the children. Should you need me, just write. I will defend you.

Good to know, though the entire blog reads as if its writer were a homeless guy with a signboard on a street corner in New York shouting “the end is near, the end is near.”

His next entry offers his list of evil-doers, which includes someone he calls “HK”:

This is the Republican editorial writer. He writes for the entire team and they put their names to it. Besides his awful tic, his figures are often wrong. He is married to an ugly person. We have yet to determine the sex of that person.

Of course, I’m curious as to whom HK might be, given that I am HK the editorial writer. Then again, I don’t have any tics that I know of, rarely get my facts wrong and am generally considered to be to the left of the Democrats on nearly every issue. As for my wife, she’s quite the looker, so I can only assume he has a different HK in mind.

Good to see that there are some truly sane folks in Monroe.

South Brunswick Post, The Cranbury Press
The Blog of South Brunswick

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Hey, Rudy: Don’t let the doorhit you on the way out

This post from Josh Marshall gets at something I’ve always believed about Rudy Giuliani, that he rarely has been willing to engage in a fight that he didn’t think he could win. Or, more to the point, Giuliani is the classic bully, taking on those weaker than him but rarely engaging in those who are his equals or, god forbid, stronger than him.

So, now we won’t have Rudy and hist autocrtic, bullying ways, to kick around any longer. And the republic can breath a sigh of relief.

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The Edwards effect

John Edwards — who announced today that he is leaving the race — has had a far greater impact on this year’s presidential race than the number of delegates he’s claimed might indicate.

Forget what the talking heads will tell you, Edwards was the guy who drove the edebate on the Democratic side, forcing the issues of class, poverty and economic inequity onto the table well before the nation began its slide into recession.

Edwards’ constant focus on the “two Americas” message and his willingness to admit his mistake in voting for the Iraq war helped pull the debate during the Democratic primary to the left and his early unveiling of healthcare and stimulus plans forced his rivals to do the same.

In the short term, it would appear that Barack Obama would be the natural beneficiary of Edwards’ decision. Dan Balz writes in The Trail blog on The Washington Post Web site that

Edwards appears to have little affection for Hillary Clinton. That has been obvious in most debates, but particularly beginning in Chicago last August at the YearlyKos convention. There he drew a bright line of distinction by challenging her to join him and Barack Obama in rejecting contributions from Washington lobbyists. When she declined and defended those lobbyists, he had an issue that he never relinquished.

Edwards ran a crusade against Washington special interests and the political culture that has created such a cozy relationship between money and power. Clinton, he argued, symbolizes that relationship. She was, in his line of argument, a member in good standing of the status quo politics that he said desperately needed changing.

In debate after debate, he led or helped carry the fight to Clinton. A natural debater from his days as a trial lawyer, Edwards enjoyed the prime-time combat of their joint encounters — in a way that Obama never seemed to. The record is replete with quotations from Edwards denouncing Clinton’s brand of politics. An endorsement of her would produce the most awkward press conference since John McCain grudgingly gave his support to George W. Bush in the spring of 2000.

Everything about Edwards’s message suggests he and Obama are natural allies. As Edwards said in the run-up to the Iowa caucuses and in the memorable debate in New Hampshire three days before that state’s primary, voters want change and two candidates in the Democratic race offered it — albeit with very different styles.

There are no guarantees, of course. Some of the polling suggests that Edwards’ supporters — especially white Southerners — may be reluctant to back Obama.

That would be a shame, and not because I’m likely to vote for Obama come Tuesday (despite my disagreements with his decision to frame some issues using conservative language). Race should not be a factor in anyone’s decision.

Identity politics too often leads people to vote against their interests. There is nothing inherently progressive about a woman or black candidate (think Eliazbeth Dole and Alan Keyes) or inherently conservative about white Southerners (John Edwards and Al Gore are the proof).

As I write in the Dispatches column that will run tomorrow, we need to focus on the issues that are important. The question for progressives is which of the remaining candidates is most likely to offer progressives solutions to the problems that plague us — and not just on the economy, but on the war in Iraq, the more general war on terror, on foreign policy, climate change, the First and Fourth Amendments to the Constitution, and so on.

The goal has to be to move the country in a more progressive direction, reversing years of conservative Republican rule.

As for John Edwards, my hope is that he continues to press on, that he keeps his promise to continue fighting to bridge the gap between rich and poor that is spliting this country apart.

South Brunswick Post, The Cranbury Press
The Blog of South Brunswick

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