GOP weaknesses exposed again

The state’s Republican Party is not exactly doing well. First, there was the embarressing search for a Senate candidate that lasted nearly until the filing deadline in April and resulted in the selection of an old name (Dick Zimmer) at a time when a new face might have been more appropriate.

And now, we get this bit of odd news:

CNN’s Lou Dobbs is thinking of running for governor of New Jersey.

Several well-connected Republicans say they’ve heard the buzz that Dobbs, famous for his sharp commentary about Washington policies and politics, may be turning his sights on Trenton and has inquired about the steps necessary to start a campaign.

Yes, Lou Dobbs of “Lou Dobbs Tonight”; Lou Dobbs, the anti-illegal immigrant crusader and anti-Washington populist, who lives on “a 300-acre horse farm in Wantage, Sussex County.”

Dobbs, of course, refuses to comment and I suspect that, in the end, there will be no Dobbs candidacy. But the seriousness with which this has been met says all you need to know about the GOP at a time when the governor’s approval rating is just a hair north of the president’s.

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Don’t bet on it, Johnny

John McCain is opening a campaign office in New Jersey — a sign the Associated Press says shows that the Republican presidential hopeful thinks the state is in play in November.

State Sen. Bill Baroni, state chairman for McCain’s campaign and the senator representing Cranbury, Jamesburg, Monroe and South Brunswick, thinks so.

McCain has a shot here, Baroni said, because his moderate stance on many issues. McCain’s plan to deal with global warming, for instance, is more appealing to the state’s unaffiliated voters and more moderate Republicans than those of President Bush and other more conservative politicians.

“John McCain is the kind of candidate that New Jersey has always taken to,” Baroni said, “Independent, a maverick.”

McCain supporters are also encouraged because Hillary Rodham Clinton handily defeated Barack Obama in the state’s Feb. 5 primary election.

“I certainly think a number of Sen. Clinton’s supporters are what have always been Reagan Democrats,” Baroni said. “They voted for Ronald Reagan, they voted for Bill Clinton and they voted for Hillary Clinton. They’re clearly a target for John McCain.”

That’s being overly optimistic. As the AP Story also points out,

The last Republican presidential candidate to carry New Jersey was George H.W. Bush in 1988. And no Republican has been elected to statewide office here since Christie Whitman was re-elected as governor in 1997.

Polls are showing the race to be close, but then the 2006 U.S. Senate race was considered a toss-up in the final weeks of the campaign — and the Democrat, Robert Menendez, managed a double-digit win.

That, the political analysts quoted by the AP, is the likely scenario come this November. They say

the time and money McCain’s campaign is spending here is not likely to pay off in a place that usually votes Democratic.

“New Jersey likes to flirt with being independent,” said Patrick Murray, director of The Polling Institute at Monmouth University. “In the end, we like to revert to our Democratic norm.”

Ross Baker, of Rutgers University, offers a similar take.

(A) demographic shift has moved New Jersey from a toss-up to a solidly Democratic one, he said.

“Republicans periodically cast an envious eye on New Jersey and say, ‘We can win this state,'” Baker said. “It turns out they never can.”

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