The governor is standing firm. So is the Assembly. A standoff looms, but The Star-Ledger offers a sensible editorial on the mess in Trenton.
Tuesday music: Mix-tape confidential
I’m a fan of the mix-tape. Always have been.
Here is the latest mix-disc getting play in the car (called “Bad Dudes and Englishmen”):
- Arctic Monkeys, “I Bet You Look Good on the Dance Floor” — The first single off their great debut disc is loud, fast and wild
- Pearl Jam, “Wasted Life” — A return to form and the best single they have release in years.
- Iggy Pop, “Wild Child” — Danceable mid-’80s Iggy.
- Bon Jovi , “Who Says You Can’t Go Home” — I don’t generally like Bon Jovi, but this is catchy and stays with you.
- Dixie Chicks, “Not Ready to Make Nice” — No, they are not. A passionate response to the death threats and attacks that followed their dissing of the president, and just a great song.
- Bruce Springsteen, “Leah” — An underrated song from the great Devils and Dust disc.
- Steve Earle and Emmylou Harris, “Comin’ Around” — A great duet.
- Shakira w/Carlos Santana, “Illegal” — The great guitarist underscores a great vocal.
- Corrine Bailey Rae, “Put Your Records On” — Catchy, infectious pop-soul from the next big thing.
- Gnarls Barkley, “Crazy” — Funky and hard to describe.
- Fine Young Cannibals, “She Drives Me Crazy” — These guys are a lot better than some might remember and deserve a lot more attention. Their first single has a nice groove.
- Natasha Bedingfield, “Single” — This song should be given to every high school and college-age girl.
- Rihanna, “SOS” — A sexy dance song.
- Shakira w/Wyclef Jean, “Hips Don’t Lie” — See comment above, watch the video and get on the dance floor.
- Nancy Sinatra, “These Boots Were Made for Walking” — Jessica Simpson wishes she could sing like this.
- Macy Gray, “Boom Boom” — A sultry song from the Desperate Housewives soundtrack. Whatever happened to her, anyway?
- Fine Young Cannibals, “Good Thing” — Second single is better than the first.
- Steve Earle and Lucinda Williams, “You’re Still Standing There” — Another great duet, this one spiced up with a pair of Southern drawls.
- Bruce Springsteen, “Bring ‘Em Home” — Listen to him.
- Johnny Rivers, “Memphis” — A great live version from a forgotten blues man.
- Chuck Berry, “Brown-Eyed Handsome Man” — The master.
- Bruce Springsteen, “How Can a Poor Man Stand Such Times as These and Live?” — Springsteen sings for New Orleans.
Pass along your playlists.
A pen(sion)ed-in budget
The Star-Ledger today offers a pretty solid overview of the fiscal calamity facing the state, which raises unstated questions about the current budget discussions that neither political party seems willing to answer.
Gov. Jon Corzine, as I’ve written many times, has put together a painful budget that makes some effort to right the state’s fiscal ship. The problem is that he is asking taxpayers to help foot the bill though an increase in the sales tax rate and an expansion in what it can be applied to.
This has led to a revolt by his own party and a disingenuous assault from Republicans who want to paint it as just another tax-and-spend budget.
State Sen. Tom Kean Jr., who is running for U.S. Senate, has hammered on the new spending in the $30.9 billion budget — it is about 10 percent larger than last year — without acknowledging what the new spending is or how he would cut spending without further injuring the state’s fiscal health.
From my perspective, there are two basic things we need to keep in mind:
1. The state has been spending more money than it has generated in recurring revenues for years, so that the governor was facing an estimated $4.5 billion shortfall before he even started (estimates already place next year’s gap at $5.5 billion). The budget proposed by the governor, by no means perfect, attempted to close this gap by splitting the difference — about half will come from new revenues, including $1.1 billion from the sales tax — and half from spending cuts — including money for state colleges. None of this is popular, but almost no one involved seems willing to offer a reasonable alternative that does not push the problem off for another year.
2. The state has been underfunding its pension plan for going on 15 years — it is about $18 billion in the hole right now. The governor is proposing $1.5 billion in pension payments this year, up $1.1 billion from last year and more than the total contributed by the state for the last nine years, according to the Ledger. And yet, his proposal is still $300 million to $400 million less than would be needed just to cover this year’s portion — without taking into account the past amount owed. A major crisis is looming, one that will be far more painful when it hits than the incremental sacrifices being sought by the governor now.
The upshot in both cases is the same: We can pay some now or we can pay a whole lot more later.
DISPATCHES: A necessary discussion in Monroe
Monroe is considering consolidation of its fire districts into one. Here is my Dispatches column on the proposal.
OK, no sales tax hike. So what’s the alternative?
State Assembly leaders told Gov. Jon Corzine yesterday that there is no support for a sales tax hike in the lower chamber, essentially killing one of the more controversial aspects of the governor’s proposed budget less than two weeks before it has to be approved.
That takes about $1.1 billion in anticipated new revenue out of the governor’s proposal, leaving a massive hole in the $30.9 billion budget that will not be easy to plug.
Contrary to Republican claims, the budget pretty much holds spending even. Nearly all of the new spending comes from a handful of categories out of the governor’s control: a $1.1 billion increase in payments to the state pension fund (which will not even meet current obligations); $300 million goes to the state’s woefully underfunded unemployment fund; $358 million for new Medicaid spending and $483 million will cover an increase in state debt payments. That’s $2.24 billion right out of the gate. Add that to some unpopular cuts — higher education, for instance — and you can see that this is not a wild and outlandish spending plan.
The factor underlying all of this is an estimated $4.5 billion to $5 billion hole — i.e., the state has been spending that much more than it has been taking in and has been plugging the hole with fiscal gimmicks. In the short term, that has allowed the state to avoid too much pain. But as each year passes and each budget is put in place, there are fewer and fewer gimmicks available. And some of them — like delaying payments into the state pension fund — come with a price that will come due in the not-too-distant future.
So, where will the Assemby take this? If the sales tax hike is off the table, will it opt for an income tax hike? This would be fairer, but probably even less politically acceptible, making it unlikely.
Will it hike assorted fees? Perhaps, but there are not enough of those to make too much of a difference.
Will it cut spending? Not likely — or not to the degree that would be necessary to plug the hole (nor should it — that would inflict far too much pain on the state’s residents).
So then what? It will do what politicians in New Jersey always do — cheat the future by deferring pension and other payments, hoping that someone down the road will fix the mess. Already, as The Star-Ledger reports, Assembly Democrats are talking about cutting $300 million from the governor’s pension proposal, which will only increase the size of next year’s structural deficit. That leaves them only $800 million to go.