Doom and gloom

The Washington Post is reporting that the most recent National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq will essentially confirm what everyone knows: That the country is aflame with sectarian strife and that those flames are only likely to grow hotter.

In a discussion of whether Iraq has reached a state of civil war, the 90-page classified NIE comes to no conclusion and holds out prospects of improvement. But it couches glimmers of optimism in deep uncertainty about whether the Iraqi leaders will be able to transcend sectarian interests and fight against extremists, establish effective national institutions and end rampant corruption.

The document emphasizes that although al-Qaeda activities in Iraq remain a problem, they have been surpassed by Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence as the primary source of conflict and the most immediate threat to U.S. goals. Iran, which the administration has charged with supplying and directing Iraqi extremists, is mentioned but is not a focus.

Expect both sides to point to the estimate as evidence that their position — getting out or sending in more troops — is the best course. )As anyone who has read this blog or any of my columns knows, I believe we need to leave.)

The estimate, however, offers nothing of the sort. Rather, it is just more evidence of how bad a blunder the invasion was in the first place.

South Brunswick Post, The Cranbury Press
The Blog of South Brunswick

Another music list

I want to point readers to Tris McCall’s annual Critics Poll, released earlier this week on his Web page, The Tris McCall Report. I voted for the first time and, having viewed the results, find that I know far less about current musical trends than I thought.

Apparently, I am no longer hip — if I ever was hip — because I can’t help but like John Mellencamp’s “Our Country” (more about the new album in a few days).

South Brunswick Post, The Cranbury Press
The Blog of South Brunswick

Pockets of need

This is a tough story. Not because it was difficult to report or write, but because it points out the flawed statistics we rely on to understand our economy.

Last week, the county conducted a homeless census designed to determine how homeless men, women and children there are in Middlesex County. The trouble is that the count is essentially voluntary, relying on the homeless to come forward and volunteer their status. While this catches many, it leaves those living in the shadows in the shadows while also purposely ignoring a whole category of transients who technically have roofs over their heads.

(A)ccording to Amanda Warga, who works for the Middlesex County homeless Help Line, people living in welfare motels do not count as homeless because they have shelter.

“Although they are homeless in regular language, they can get hotel placement for two months and not be considered homeless,” Ms. Warga said. “Sometimes the hotels are so far out that they can’t find work anywhere and they aren’t counted as homeless. They should be, but they’re not.”

I’d have to agree. Not counting them distorts the true picture of homelessness and what is sometimes called housing insecurity. They have shelter — but only for the moment and it is dependent on forces they cannot control. When the winds change, they often find themselves without shelter, perhaps under a bridge in New Brunswick or living in a tree house on Beekman Road.

South Brunswick Post, The Cranbury Press
The Blog of South Brunswick

Runner’s diary, Thursday (and Wednesday)

Once again, I forgot to post my times — and almost forgot today. Perhaps this running log is not meant to be a part of the blog.

Wednesday: Four miles in 36:20 (approx.)
Thursday: Five miles in 44:30 (approx.), which isn’t too shabby.

The goal is to keep extending the week while slowly shaving seconds off the time. So far, 14 miles in three runs with just two more miles to the week’s goal of 16.

South Brunswick Post, The Cranbury Press
The Blog of South Brunswick