Double plays are the pitcher’s friend. Strikeouts, while important a, are just outs.
Except when they’re not. While it might seem counterintuitive, sometimes the strikeout may cost the hitting team more than the double play.
Consider the first inning of today’s Mets-Astros pre-season game. Curtis Granderson leads off with a triple and David Wright walks. Mets have first and third with no one out.
Yoenes Cespedes comes up. Obviously, the best outcome would be for him to get a hit, but he doesn’t — and this is where the situational nature of the game comes into play. The next two batters are going to strike out and hit into a double play — three outs on two batters. Does it matter which comes first?
In most cases, yes. If Cespedes grounds into a double play, Granderson likely scores. Duda then comes up with the bases empty and strikes out — a harmless out.
But, what if Cespedes strikes out? That’s what happened today — Cespedes looked at a called third strike, and Duda bounced into a double play. The strikeout, in this case, was probably more damaging within the inning’s narrative because it changed the value of the ground all — the no-out DP would score a run, while a one-out DP ends the inning scoreless.
In most cases, the DP is going to cost you more but, in true baseball fashion, sometimes it doesn’t.
This is just one of the many ways that statistics can mask the value of any individual play — and it’s why, in the end, you have to watch the games.
Hank Kalet 