The 2003 draft is considered by many to be the greatest draft in NBA history. That draft brought us not only LeBron James, but Carmelo Anthony, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh, along with some solid role players.
The 1984 draft, I would argue, was its equal. Hakeem Olajuwan, Michael Jordan, Charles Barkley and John Stockton — four hall-of-famers — went in the first round, along with Sam Perkins, Alvin Robertson and Kevin Willis, who had very solid NBA careers.
And 2008 has shaped up to be pretty good so far — if beset by serious injuries — with Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Love going in the first five picks (OJ Mayo, Dano Galinari, Roy Hibbert and Brook Lopez went in the first round that year).
What I find interesting about both the 2003 and 1984 drafts, however, is not the star power, but the underlying stories — the huge mistakes made with high-level picks. These are the drafts that brought us Sam Bowie and Darko Milicic — chancy picks that made little sense at the time and even less in hindsight.
Bowie is the definition of a draft-day mistake (though, I would argue not the worst pick — we’ll get there in a second). Bowie went second in 1984, with Portland opting for size and passing on Michael Jordan. This dynamic is what defines that draft, what makes it memorable. The Blazers passed on Jordan? Really? That’s crazy. No one remembers that Houston passed on Jordan first — though, to be fair, they did take one of the greatest centers with the first pick and they ultimately rode him to two titles (both when Jordan was “retired”).
Dallas picked fourth that year, opting for Perkins, who was a good pro whose best years ended up being played in Los Angeles, and passing on Barkley, probably the greatest player to never win an NBA championship. Stockton went 16th.
In 2003, it was pretty obvious that James was going to go first, coming straight out of high school. There were some who liked Anthony, who had just won a title with Syracuse as a freshman, but James was as close to a consensus as you can get. What happened next makes little sense. Joe Dumars, the GM in Detroit, opted for a 7-foot European teenager with little track record. Milicic went second to a team that, at least in theory, could afford to take its time with the teen. Milicic never panned out and was barely passable as an NBA player — he hung around because 7-footers tend to hang around. But he had few productive spurts in the league.
The next three guys? Carmelo Anthony and James’ teammates Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh, making Milicic one of the worst picks in the history of the league.
This is the key element needed when evaluating epically bad picks: who did you pass on and what did you give up to make the pick happen.
Take the Knicks, a franchise with an absolutely awful track record. Remember Frederic Weis? Knick fans do, but not because of his ability on the court. He failed to play a game in the NBA, which would have been bad enough. But the Knicks opted for the French big man with the 15th pick in 1999 and passed on New York favorite son Ron Artest, a defensive maven with a very Knick-like attitude. That, for Knick fans, was rubbing salt in the wound. Oh, Andrei Kirilenko went 24th.
My picks for worst draft picks in NBA history:
1. Joe Barry Carroll by Golden State in 1980. Carroll had a passable NBA career, a big man who could score playing on a bad team. He even averaged about 18 points and 8 rebounds a game for an 11-year career, which is not bad. So why rank him no. 1? Because the Golden State Warriors traded up to get him — from no. 3. The deal goes like this: The Celtics, holding the no. 1 pick, send it to the Warriors along with the 13th pick for the Warriors’ no. 3 pick and — and this is key — center Robert Parrish, an underused four-year veteran. The Celtics then pick Kevin McHale with the third pick and the game’s greatest frontline is born. Larry Bird, who arrived the year before, now had the running partners that would define Celtic success for the next decade, including three titles. Golden State is still looking for a ring.
2. Sam Bowie. See above.
3. Greg Oden by Portland in 2007. Big man with big defensive potential, but whom many said had old-man’s legs (I can’t find the link) and who just seemed to lack something. Kevin Durant, who went second, lacked nothing and, in fact, was being touted as a potential franchise player. Oden, as Bill Simmons said before the draft, was the conventional pick. Conventional wisdom won out in 2007. Durant, however, has won the battle that matters.
4. Milicic. See above.
5. Kwame Brown by Washington in 2001. Brown was one of three high school players drafted in the first four picks — Tyson Chandler and Eddy Curry were the others. Brown was supposed to have an NBA body. He was supposed to be the prototype big man and would carry the Wizards into the future. And he was the man Michael Jordan, Wizard GM, wanted. What Brown ultimately proved, however, was that Jordan was fallible. Brown has had a passable career coming out of a terrible draft (though it did produce four future all-stars). The men who went two and three? Chandler, who won a title with Dallas and was Defensive Player of the Year with the Knicks, and Pau GAsol, Kobe’s running mate during the last Laker title run. (This doesn’t account for Zach Randolph going 19th and future hall-of-famer Tony Parker going 28th.)
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Hank Kalet 