New Jersey will hold two high-profile elections this year — one to fill the seat vacated by the death of longtime U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg in October and the other for governor. These elections are sucking the air out of the room, however, and obscuring what is really at stake this year: the composition of the state Legislature.
All 120 seats in the state Legislature are on the ballot in November and, while Democrats hold majorities in both houses, a Christie landslide combined with low turnout could put a serious dent in their majorities. That’s what some observers are saying, though even they are not completely convinced.
I’ve been skeptical of the coattail argument in the past, based on what I see as a lack of evidence. The two elections seen as backing up the coattail argument — Tom Kean’s 1985 re-election and Jim McGreevey’s 2001 win — have to be placed within the proper context. Kean’s win cane 28 years ago during a time when the state was more Republican and much more likely to see party shifts in the Legislature. The McGreevey win, which came with a big legislative win for the Democrats, was part of a larger shift away from the Republicans — the Democrats had picked up seats in each of the preceding elections.
My sense — buttressed by discussions with several academics who study New Jersey politics — has been that there are only a few seats in play. The redistricting plan put in place for the 2011 legislative races was designed to create a sense of continuity. Continuity, in this case, means status quo — i.e., incumbents win.
This calculus, however, is based on all things being normal, and 2013 is far from normal. With two general elections scheduled three weeks apart and a governor’s race that is all but a forgone conclusion, we likely are looking at lower-than-normal voter turnout, which could increase the number of seats in play.
Let’s dispense with the formalities here. The Democrats are going to win the Senate seat and the only drama is likely to occur in August during a four-way primary that pits Newark Mayor Cory Booker and his massive name recognition and war chest against two Congressmen who have strong progressive credentials — Frank Pallone and Rush Holt — and Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver. Even that drama seems a bit overplayed given the polling. The the Monmouth University poll says:
Among potential voters in the August Democratic primary – i.e. registered Democrats who regularly vote in general elections and say they may vote in the Senate primary – Booker holds a commanding lead over his challengers, garnering 63% support, compared to 10% for Holt, 8% for Pallone, and 6% for Oliver.
The Monmouth poll gives Booker a 16-point lead over Lonegan, who fairs well against the other three Democrats (a bit of a surprise), though that is probably because Lonegan has greater name recognition going into the race. My suspicion is that the 45 percent he polls against Pallone is his ceiling, given the extremities of his views. The numbers for Booker are even better in the Quinnipiac poll.
As for the governor’s race, the only question seems to be Christie’s margin of victory. He has maintained a 30 percentage point lead in successive polls, has garnered some high-level Democratic endorsements and has a massive war chest available. He has been targeting Buono with some nasty ads, as well, which are likely to make it impossible for her to build positive name recognition.
Again, the big-ticket races are obscuring the real stakes in the race — the ultimate make-up of the state Legislature. Democrats now hold a 24-16 advantage in the Senate and a 48-32 advantage in the Assembly. The composition of the Legislature, experts say, could depend upon turnout, which they say is likely to be suppressed by the special election. Monmouth said the November race is likely to draw about 45 percent of registered voters, down slightly from the normally anticipated 47 percent to 49 percent turnout normal for gubernatorial races.
The poll finds that Democrats are more likely to opt for voting in the October Senate race over November’s gubernatorial and legislative election. If forced to choose to vote in only one election, 73% of likely New Jersey voters say they would cast their ballot in the regular general election to 20% who prefer the special Senate election. Democrats (26%) are more likely than Republicans (14%) to choose the special election.
“Low turnout normally benefits a Republican, so the Democratic nominee will need a boost from supporters more interested in the Senate race to maintain the party’s normal edge in Garden State elections,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “This could also Monmouth University Polling Institute 6/13/13 translate to fewer Democratic voters in November, which will serve topump up Gov. Christie’s already daunting lead.”
“Democrats don’t like it because they expect it will lower turnout in the November 2013 election, leading to an even bigger win for Christie and the possibility of Republican legislative gains.”
There were 1.4 million votes cast in 2011 and a 45 percent turnout would mean about 2.3 million cast this time. Christie is likely to get between 1.3 million and 1.4 million of them. The questions are:
- How many of those voters are going to be in already Democratic districts?
- How many of those Christie voters in D-leaning districts are going to supplement their Christie votes by backing Republican legislative candidates?
- And will there be enough to push Democratic seats into the Republican column?
My initial feeling is that Christie’s landslide is going to come from big turnouts in R-leaning districts, with some help in Middlesex and Bergen counties, the urban vote will remain small, but won’t hurt incumbent Democrats in those districts, and we may see a couple of seats shift, but nowhere near enough to shift the party balance. (It could alter the power balance in the Democratic Party, depending upon where the losses occur.)
That’s just an impression. We don’t have any real history to work from, which makes predicting outcomes this time around a fool’s errand.
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Hank Kalet 