Johan Santana is probably done as a Met. As sad as that is, the reality is that he was probably done last year and any expectations that he would be productive for New York might best be described as wishful thinking.
So, where does that leave the men from Flushing?
In exactly the same place they were expected to land. In nearly every other division in baseball, this is a last-place club. If it weren’t for the Florida Fire-Sales, the Mets would be destined for the cellar — and they still could be.
Or they could surprise. It is baseball, after all. And it is not yet opening day.
But realism requires us to judge what we have before us and what we have is a handful of legitimate major leaguers, some aging losers and a number of ballplayers who probably should be playing for the Somerset Patriots.
So, who are the legit big-leaguers? David Wright, obviously. While the third-baseman struggled in the second half under the weight of being the only legitimate stud in the line-up, he still showed why he is among the top players at his position in the game.
Who else? Ike Davis. His second half was lost amid the team’s collapse, but he is young, outstanding defensively and he hit more than 30 dingers a year ago. That gives the Mets promise at the corners.
Anyone else? The other two infielders — shortstop Ruben Tejada and second-baseman Daniel Murphy — have proven they belong in the majors, but it remains unclear whether they are longterm solutions as everyday players. Tejada is young and an excellent fielder who has shown a surprising ability to hit when everyone expected him not to. Murphy is a solid batman with minimal power and no position, but he gets the nod everyday because the alternatives are pretty slim.
The rest of the lineup? Is Lucas Duda a legitimate power threat or just the second coming of John Milner, a player with promise who never quite lives up to it? And what about Kirk Nieuwenhuis? He had his moments last year, but he strikes out too much for a guy with nominal power and while he runs well he’s not a threat on the basepaths. He probably will have a decent career as a fifth outfielder/journeyman — and here he is penciled in as the opening day centerfielder.
As for John Buck and Marlon Byrd, these guys are placeholders — Buck is holding down the catching slot until the other catcher they received in the R.A. Dickey trade, Travis D’Arnaud, is ready. Byrd, well, the fact that he is being penciled in for actual at bats is a comment on the rest of the Mets outfield prospects. Mike Baxter is a solid backup with grit, and Jordany Valdespin is a converted infielder who has shown enough versatility and acumen with the bat to warrant a roster spot.
Sadly, the Mets lineup features two, maybe three guys who deserve everyday at-bats and five back-ups, while the bench is AAA all the way.
Then there is the pitching. Jonathan Niese is the opening day pitcher. This is not a good thing. I like Niese, but he is a solid middle- to back-end-of-the-rotation guy and not the stud you need to go up against the other teams’ aces. The rest of the rotation, save for stud-in-the-making Matt Harvey, is filled with no. 5s and placeholders. Shawn Marcum, Dillon Gee and Jeremy Hefner will be pitching to see who loses his rotation spot to the inevitable call-up of Zack Wheeler and maybe Jenry Mejia.
As for Harvey, he looks to be the real deal, but he also has only a handful of games under his belt and the season is going to require a learning curve. Still, I am more upbeat about the likely second-half rotation — Harvey, Niese, Wheeler and maybe Mejia and Gee — than the misfits being asked to shoulder the load now.
The bullpen, well, the less said the better about that crew — unless Bobby Parnell finally takes to the closer role. Let’s hope that happens, because the rest of the bullpen is composed of retreads like Latroy Hawkins and Brandon Lyon.
Prediction: Fourth place, though they could make a run at third if a) Harvey, Wheeler and D’Arnaud prove ready and can be successful; b) Parnell and Duda live up to prior expectations, and c) the Braves succumb to injuries and the Phillies continue to age.
No one, however, is going to catch the Nationals.
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Hank Kalet 