AP has called it for Chris Christie and the TV news is trumpeting it, but it appears that he has few coattails. Democrats look like they are going to keep their seats in the Assembly, Republicans theirs and, of the handful of local results I’ve seen, only South Brunswick flipped, so we’ll see.
And yet we’re starting to hear the nonsense about how this shows a groundswell for the GOP, something I guess was inevitable.
Painting the Christie win as startling is startling in and of itself, given that Christie was ahead by 20 or so points early, saw the poll-lead evaporate and hung on. By rights, it shouldn’t have been as close as it was.
I suspect the New Jersey vote has little to say what will happen nationally. Consider these numbers from the exit polling:
Obama made himself a major factor in the race by campaigning for Corzine twice in the final weeks of the race — including at two rallies on Sunday. The majority of voters said that their feelings about Obama were not a factor in their vote in the race for governor.
But voters’ feelings about Obama were in sync with the what they did in the voting booths Tuesday. Christie voters strongly disapprove of Obama’s performance; Corzine voters overwhelmingly approve of the president.
Two-thirds of Daggett voters said they approved of the president — perhaps a hint that Daggett’s presence on the ballot hurt Corzine more than Christie.
The New Jersey Republican revolt of the early 1990s didn’t prevent Bill Clinton from winning in New Jersey. And I suspect that the anti-Corzine revolt — which is what this was, an anti-property tax, anti-Corzine vote — will have little impact on the congressional races, as little as they appear to have had on the Legislature.
Hank Kalet 