For Gov. Jon Corzine, there is little positive that can be found in today’s Quinnipiac Poll, one that has Republican Chris Christie leading 50-40 against the incumbent. Consider:
Gov. Corzine leads 73 – 19 percent among Democratic likely voters, while Christie leads 88 – 7 percent among Republicans and 56 – 32 percent among independent voters. Men back Christie 55 – 38 percent, while women give the Republican a 46 – 43 percent edge.
All New Jersey registered voters disapprove 56 – 36 percent of the job Corzine is doing, his lowest grade ever and down from a 53 – 38 percent disapproval rating May 20.
Voters say 55 – 37 percent that Corzine does not deserve to be reelected. Democrats say four more years 66 – 25 percent, while he gets an 84 – 9 percent thumbs down from Republicans and a 64 – 28 percent boot from independent voters.
Things have gotten worse in New Jersey since Corzine became Governor, 52 percent of voters say, the highest measure for this grim outlook.
None of this is good news for the governor, though I suspect it isn’t fatal for him — there is about five months to go before voters actually have to touch their screens in the voting booth and there are aspects of the poll that Christie should take as showing some level of his own vulnerability:
- Two-thirds of New Jerseyans are dissaitisfied with the state of the state, but 40 percent still back Corzine and 10 percent have not made up their mind.
- About 40 percent of respondents could not judge Christie’s leadership qualities or his honest and trustworthiness (in fact, the 42 percent who view him as “honest and trustworthy” is the same number as view Corzine the same way, though Corzine’s negatives on this — 44 percent — are more than double Christie’s — 20 percent).
- Christie is given a higher mark on budgetary matters than Corzine — 45-36 — but nearly half of the state’s voters still know little about him and he has yet to offer a plan. The question is what will happen to the numbers if/when he does so (Remember Byrne-Batemen 1977).
If I were a betting man, I would still put my money on Christie winning (this is not an endorsement), but I wouldn’t give odds or points. And I’d keep the bet small — don’t want to lose your house on a bet that is as far from a sure thing as anything can be.
Hank Kalet 