A Monmouth University survey of a five-state region issued today would appear to show support among Shore residents for oil and gas drilling off the coast, though the poll also found that residents want more to be done to protect the coastline.
The numbers are sowmehat contradictory, though not surprising, given the structure of the poll, the demographics of the counties included and the rise in awareness of gas prices over the last two years.
Consider the poll results on the drilling question:
Opinion is a more divided on the question of drilling for oil or gas off the Atlantic coast, although support for this option has increased in the past two years. Just under half of coastal residents (46%) would support drilling in the ocean for energy resources, compared to 37% who are opposed and 12% who have no opinion. Two years ago, coastal resident support for drilling in the Atlantic stood at 33%, opposition at 40%, and no opinion at 24%. It appears that the increased support found in the current survey has come from a decrease in those who were on the fence about the issue in 2007.
The increase in support has also come more from some regions than others. Only 37% of coastal New York residents support drilling for oil in the Atlantic, about the same as the 35% who favored this in 2007. However, a majority (51%) of New Jersey coastal residents now support ocean drilling, up from 30% two years ago. Support from Delmarva residents is also higher in the current survey than two years ago. However there are some differences within that region – a majority of residents in coastal Maryland (65%) and Delaware (52%) support ocean drilling, while fewer Virginia (42%) coastal residents share that view.
Gas prices have been fluctuating over the last two years, but no more than they have since the Gulf Coast region was hit by a pair of devastating hurricanes — Katrina and Rita — in 2005.
The difference, I think, has to do with public activism on the issue last spring following the second major spike in prices in a relatively short time and the role that gas prices and energy issues played in the 2008 presidential race. Remember “Drill, baby, drill” and the Clinton and McCain gas-tax holidays? Drilling was a major piece of the Republican energy plan during 2008 — a fact reflected in the political demographics of the counties surveyed. Just four of the 11 counties included backed then-candidate Barack Obama; seven backed John McCain.
Consider:
- The two New York counties — Nassau and Suffolk — both backed President Barack Obama; only 37 percent of New Yorkers surveyed back drilling.
- Three of the four New Jersey counties went for McCain; 51 percent of New Jerseyans backed drilling.
- Sussex County in Delaware and Worcester County in Maryland both backed McCain; both also backed drilling in the survey.
- Virginia is the anamoly. Two of the three counties backed McCain, but they continue to oppose drilling.
I am not disputing the polls results or questioning the methodology. What I am saying is that factors like political leanings may play a role in the results.
There is a danger that polls like this could be used to push the public toward what I believe would be a wasteful intrusion into the ocean ecosystem.
There is something else to consider, as well. There is a tendency for people to support things in theory, but when reality hits they change their minds. Ask them if they support drilling and they say yes; put a real plan on paper or start moving the trucks and ships in and it is likely that they will shout no. I base this on my years covering zoning fights in which residents gather together to fight warehouses or massive housing complexes on properties in their so-called backyard that had been zoned for those uses for years. We tend to be oblivious to these things until we realize that we might be staring at a busy loading dock — or that our sunny day at the beach or afternoon on the fishing boat might be affected by a massive derrick off shore.
Hank Kalet 