What we knew a few months ago is now official: Gov. Jon Corzine will be challenged in November by former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie.
Polls in recent weeks show Christie with a lead and Corzine with low approval ratings. But it’s unclear how deep Christie’s support is and whether, when push comes to shove, the Democrat-leaning independents and Democrats angry with Corzine will vote for Christie, stay home or come back into the Democratic fold.
Remember the way statewide races tend to go — polls show a close race or a Republican win, and then the first Tuesday in November comes along and the Democrat wins by a good 8 points of more.
Consider what Peter Woolley, a political scientist at Fairleigh Dickinson University who runs their Public Mind polling, said Monday:
At the state level, Republicans agree overwhelmingly on just one thing: They don’t like the job Jon Corzine has done as governor (91%). “But,” says Peter Woolley, a political scientist and director of the poll, “their disapproval of Corzine will not be enough to carry them. They will need significant allies and votes outside the party.
“More than nine of 10 Republicans are white in a state with sizable ethnic minorities,” Woolley noted. “Whoever leads the Republicans in the general election campaign will have to reach well beyond regular Republicans and beyond leafy suburbs.”
My sense — at I don’t have numbers to back me up — is that Christie will have a low support ceiling, similar to the one Christie Whitman dealt with in her two narrow wins.
And there is the cautionary tale of Raymond Bateman and Brendan “One-term” Byrne. Bateman, the Republican candidate in 1977, was expected to know Byrne out of office because of public anger over the new income tax. Bateman, however, lost when he offered a tax and budget plan that lacked credibility and Byrne made those who tagged him with his nickname look pretty foolish.
So, I make no predictions.
Hank Kalet 