New Jersey has a center-right electorate? That’s what Alan Steinberg thinks — despite electoral evidence going back almost two decades. Consider: Democrats have won three of the last five gubernatorial races, the last five presidential races in New Jersey by decent margins, the last 10 Senate races, own majorities in both houses of the state Legislature and eight of 13 seats in Congress.
The state is far from conservative, showing a decide tilt to blue candidates as its default position, except when special circumstances present themselves. The Florio backlash is the primary example of this, his tax hike resulting in the Democrats losing the Legislature and Christie Whitman nearly toppling U.S. Sen. Bill Bradley before she won the Statehouse.
The Menendez win in 2006 is instructive. He was losing in the polls throughout much of the year to state Sen. Tom Kean Jr., the son of the state’s most popular governor. The polls, however, showed a decent-size number of undecided voters, most of whom broke for Menendez despite the ethical cloud that had formed above his head. Part of the reason was the ugly campaign waged by Kean, which undercut what made him an attractive candidate in the first place — his likeability. That, combined with the electoral default, resulted in a near double-digit win for Mendendez.
Jon Corzine is in a similar position to Menendez, but also shares some of the huge obstacles that Florio faced in 1993. There is no doubt that taxes are a major concern for New Jersey voters — with most saying they are not prepared to back tax-hikers.
But it is early and it remains to be seen whether Christie can capitalize, whether he can convince voters that he can fix the state’s deep-rooted budgetary mess without asking voters for more money or cutting programs they’ve come to rely on.
But center-right? You’ve got to be kidding.
Hank Kalet 
Ethical cloud over Menendez? That so called ethical cloud was garbage fabricated by Kean with help from Christie. Looks like Christie is one of those US Attorneys who kept his job by throwing mud at a Democratic candidate. So what happened to those so called ethical clouds over Menendez? Nothing, nil, nada because it was all bogus. Christie was supposed to be this super charged US Attorney who pursued wrong doers to the ends of the earth; if there had been real cause, he would have nailed Menendez in a heart beat. The US Attorneys who didn\’t go along with the Bush DOJ tactic of finding dirt on Democratic candidates during the campaign season were fired.Kean had all the charm of a flatulent skunk.