I was watching one of the cable news stations this morning with the sound off while I ran and I was caught off guard by a graphic that said “Economy likely to be better in 2009.” Huh?
A strong opening for the Dow Jones Industrials today offered some cause for optimism — but only if one focused solely on stocks and not on the issues affecting the larger population. That, however, explains only part of the seemingly out-of-kilter optimism.
At issue is the use of market experts to talk about the economy — people who follow stock market trends but who, for the most part, completely missed the cracks spreading throughout the foundation. Most assumed what we were facing earlier this year was a temporary cooling, most saw the extreme growth in housing prices as a permanent expansion, acting like cheerleaders rather than analysts.
So when we hear them talking now, shouldn’t we be a bit more cautious, a bit more skeptical — expecially when their modest optimism is contextualized by headlines like these?
- U.S. manufacturing weakest in 28 years
- Awful ’08 extends market’s dismal decade
- Big winners of the past were losers in ’08
- Jobless claims drop, but labor market still weak
- Holiday sales seen worst in 38 years
- Consumer confidence hits all-time low in Dec.
- Oil prices rebound as dollar slumps
- Loan issuance is lowest since 1994
I think we all know the answer.
Hank Kalet 