The poll results released today from the Polling Institute at Monmouth University should not really be a surprise to anyone. No one really knows who Rob Andrews or any of the Republicans are in the U.S. Senate race and Gov. Jon Corzine remains mired in Bush-like approval ratings.
New Jersey voters also — and this is a bit of a surprise — now seem to favor Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination, almost three months after backing Clinton in the primary. According to the poll, more 45 percent of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents say they would like to see Obama get the nomination, compared with 38 percent for Clinton.
“It appears that less than three months after giving Hillary Clinton a 10 point victory in the state’s primary, some New Jersey voters feel buyer’s remorse,” said poll director Patrick Murray. “Many state Democrats are concerned that the prolonged battle could hobble their party’s eventual nominee in November.”
Obama received 44 percent of the vote on Feb. 5, so his support appears to have held steady. It is the Clinton supporters who appear to be moving to the undecided column. Of course, it is possible that the inclusion of “Democrat-leaning independents” is skewing the results.
Of more importance, the normal course of things has been restored. Several months ago, Sen. John McCain appeared to be closing on the Democrats in New Jersey, making a reliably blue state far more competitive than the Democrats would have liked.
But the latest numbers indicate that New Jersey is likely to back the Democrat, regardless of who it is: 57 percent say they plan to vote for the Democrat, 25 percent for the Republican and the rest either will back a third-party candidate, don’t know or plan to stay home.
An Obama-McCain race would likely produce a 56-32 win for Obama, while a Clinton McCain race would go 52-38 for Clinton.
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Hank Kalet 