It is amazing to me how quickly we alter our expectations once we know the results, how fungeable our analysis can be depending on what kind of narrative we’re hoping to write.
If the numbers hold, then Hillary Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 10 percentage points — the minimum she needed to seem viable. It is either a big win for her or an expected win; Obama was supposed to lose, or he stumbled badly, etc.
Part of me wonders how much of this race has been dicated by the calendar. For the most part, every state has gone to the candidate who was expected to win that state, with Obama’s big February win streak tied mostly to the states that held those February primaries.
How might we have viewed the election if Ohio and South Carolina swapped places, for instance, or if some of his big states came after Pennsylvania? I suspect the roles would be reversed (and it is likely Obama would have been called on to get out).
I also wonder just how much McCain benefits from the prolonged race. Pennsylvania adds itself to the long list of states that set turnout records (Democrats have turned out about twice as many voters as the GOP) and I suspect that the energy surrounding this primary will infuse the Democratic campaign in the fall. Plus, McCain has yet to face the harsh light of the campaign this year, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Basically, the dynamics remain in flux.
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Hank Kalet 