This thing may never end. Hillary Clinton has been declared the winner in Ohio by MSNBC with Texas too close to call. By any gauge, she would have to be viewed as tonight’s winner.
But is it enough? One of the things that strikes me about this is that it is the kind of night that, had it happened a month ago, would have been used to reinforce Clinton’s inevitability factor, but now is viewed as a last gasp for her campaign.
Listening to Chris Matthews now — gasp — I am struck by his unexpected rationality, tied to a piece that he read by Ronald Brownstein in The National Journal, in noting that the so-called momentum of this race is really nothing more than a quirk of calendar. Matthews point is that Obama, for the most part, has won only those states that he was supposed to, while Clinton has won the states she was supposed to. Had the calendar shaken out differently with the same results in each state, we may have a different definition of momentum.
Brownstein’s analysis is both more expansive and more nuanced, focusing on trends and their impacts on the Democratic coalition. The growing involvement of blacks and younger voters has been of great benefit to Obama and to the party in general, with record turnouts across the country.
The big question is whether the race has split the party, whether two competing coalitions are now in place and whether Obama supporters will stay home should Clinton win the nomination or Clinton supporters — downscale white women and seniors — will migrate to McCain should Obama win.
I still think both Democrats have the advantage as we move forward, especially if the economy continues to be the major issue. And I think that Iraq still looms large.
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Hank Kalet 