All five of the remaining six candidates in this year’s presidential race who ran in their home-state primaries yesterday managed to win and win big.
But two of the Republican nominees — John McCain and Mitt Romney — failed to win as big as some might have expected.
Consider the numbers: Both Democrats managed to tally huge victories at home, with Barack Obama taking nearly two thirds of the vote in Illinois and Hillary Clinton winning 57 percent. In addition, Mike Huckabee took 60 percent in Arkansas. But Mitt Romney pulled in just 51 percent in Massachussets, with John McCain nabbing 40 percent, while McCain garnered an unimpressive 47 percent in Arizona (Romney finished with 34 percent).
In each case, the favorite-son/daughter candidate managed a double-digit win. But in considering McCain’s win in Arizona, I have to wonder why more isn’t being made of the fact that more people voted against McCain than actually voted for him.
This story, in the Arizona Republic on Saturday, speculates on whether a McCain nomination would carry coattails, potentially swinging down-ballot races to the GOP. The assumption is that McCain carries Arizona, which seems likely, though I think the Arizona primary results at least raise some doubts.
Those doubts are made clearer by this on exit polling from The Arizona Daily Star:
Still, exit polls in Arizona Tuesday night illustrated McCain still has work to do in shoring up support from conservatives. Though McCain won the state, Romney had strong support from Republicans who described themselves as conservative and those who believe illegal immigrants should be deported. Romney had 47 percent ofthe vote from those who describe themselves as conservatives, compared to McCain’s 36 percent, according to CNN.
What helped McCain was overwhelming support from Republicans who called themselves liberals, and he was also favored by moderates.
Whether this weakness among conservatives will hurt him in the general election remains an open question, as is whether his current strength among liberals and moderates will carry over when he has to face a more liberal Democrat.
The Los Angeles Times also alludes to the same questions, well down in a Page 1 analysis story:
The Republicans’ divide was ideological — and familiar. It was the same division between moderates, most of whom favor McCain, and conservatives, most of whom don’t, that marked the results in earlier primaries from New Hampshire to South Carolina.
Across the nation, McCain led among Republicans who identified themselves as moderates or liberals, but Romney led among the larger group who called themselves conservatives, according to exit poll results published by the Associated Press.
In California, McCain won only a third of the vote among conservatives, who made up most of the Republican electorate; Romney won a plurality of conservatives’ votes. That result was repeated in most other states; even in Arizona, where McCain won overall, he lost among conservatives.
That suggested that the Arizona senator has not yet won over substantial numbers of his party’s most loyal supporters, despite weeks of effort on his part to show that he is as conservative as his rivals.
“McCain wanted to use Super Tuesday to silence his critics and become the consensus nominee, but he fell a little short,” said Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster. “McCain moved the ball forward, but he didn’t score a touchdown. It’s not a bad showing, but it’s not especially strong.”
How these questions play out as we move toward November will depend on the final lineup — not only the presidential candidates, but the vice presidential candidates — and could be influenced by any number of circumstances. McCain’s win in Arizona shows some cracks that could keep him from bringing his party togethe, which is the only hope he has come November.
Then again, I would never rule him out.
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Hank Kalet 