Interesting bit of speculation on the Blue Jersey site (where I blog occasionally) on the 14th and its potential ramifications down the road:
Baroni is running for State Senator, and though no public polls have been done, he’s the odds-on favorite to win. He’s gaining endorsements from labor unions and other progressive groups and he enjoys solid support from Republicans, who feel he’s the not-so-distant future of the state party.
Before Inverso’s retirement, Baroni was touted as a serious challenger to Lautenberg in 2008. He’s definitely on the short list to run for state office in the next 5 years — likely for Governor or the new Lieutenant Governor’s position (Christie-Baroni ’09?). But to get the extra boost he really needs, Bill Baroni will have to do something extraordinary. Something that will turn heads across the state — not to mention with the big Republican money around the country. What can he do to accomplish that?
Paint the 14th red.
And he could do it. Say Baroni runs a modest campaign this fall: he’ll win by ten points easily. He’s running against a newcomer — Seema Singh — in a “Clean Elections” campaign, where she cannot use a large warchest to saturate the airwaves and bring up her name recognition. It’s going to come down to the streets, where
Baroni is a dynamo — no one’s knocked on more doors than he has.If Baroni goes all out, pummels Singh in the free media early, pushes his runningmates to knock Greenstein hard, too, and campaigns his heart out — he could very well carry the entire GOP ticket to victory.
I’m not so sure — as my response indicates (the response quoted below has been edited some):
Baroni is likely to win pretty big, taking five of seven towns, including South Brunswick, where he’s well-known and popular. He will lose, however, in Monroe and Plainsboro pretty convincingly, as will his running mates. (Republicans are nearly extinct in those communities.)
The question, ultimately, is how well Linda Greenstein can do in Hamilton and South Brunswick. In the last race, she finished third in Hamilton by a handful of votes and finished second in South Brunswick, beating former SB Police Chief Michael Paquette in the process. She also won West Windsor and Jamesburg outright — taking four of the seven towns in the district.
Her opponents are a Hamilton councilman and a former Jamesburg councilman who has lost his last two or three bids for Jamesburg council. I think this is going to come down to a three-way race to see who serves with Greenstein in the Assembly, with the two Hamilton candidates battling for the spot and Adam Bushman, the former Jamesburg councilman, finishing fourth (I like Adam, by the way — he’s more progressive than many Dems I know on many issues and we have endorsed him several times for Borough Council).
My sense, right now, is that the political make up of the 14th is likely to remain as is, with a Republican state senator (albeit a more progressive one), and a split in the Assembly.
I should point that this is speculation and is not a reflection of how the South Brunswick Post and The Cranbury Press will endorse come November. It’s just an interesting thought experiment.
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Hank Kalet 