The Cubs are certainly spending a lot of money. The question is whether it will do anything to make them better.
Their latest signing was the top name on the market, but the contract raises eyebrows — $136 million over eight years for a 30-year-old power bat (31 when the season starts) who is still learning to play the outfield.
Alfonso Soriano had a great year in 2006, hitting 46 homeruns and stealing 41 bases. But his strikeouts were up and he is, at best, a mediocre fielder and he hit just .231 with men in scoring position. The issue, however, is not the average $17 million annual salary, but that he will be getting that money through his 38th birthday — a lot of cash for someone who will spend the better part of this contract in decline.
That’s not a knock on Soriano, just a statement based on history. Batters peak at 27 or 28 and maintain that level for a few seasons before age starts to catch up. Some continue to hit homeruns, some don’t, but nearly all are forced to watch as their skills fade. Of the 21 batters in the National League who were 35 or older in 2006 and had at least 300 at bats (just five had more than 500), none hit more than 27 homeruns or drove in more than 83 runs. And only two had more than 20 steals. These kinds of numbers should give every team pause before they commit guaranteed dollars to players in the latter half of the 30s.
Soriano might just beat these Given that a good portion of Soriano’s worth is his speed, that means that the second half of this contract could be a problem for the Cubs.
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Hank Kalet 